The Brief.

The World Bank flagging the rollback of Bank Resolution Act amendments is the week’s most consequential banking signal — it ties external conditionality directly to the restructuring framework that underlies SIBL-type mergers. NPL at 35.73% and CAR at 1.56% are frozen for eight consecutive prints; the system is in a holding pattern that only a recapitalisation trigger can break. The BDT 3.0tn ADP getting final shape raises the question of whether the FY27 budget will include meaningful recapitalisation allocation when session opens June 7. The provisioning shortfall of ~BDT 1.4tn remains the system’s balance-sheet hole — oil relief reduces flow pressure but does not fill the stock gap.

Trade gap at -$3.14B and remittance at $3.76B are held-over positions from the prior monthly print — the weekly wrap carries no fresh external-sector data beyond the unchanged USD/BDT 122.75 reference rate. The structural offset holds: $3.76B remittance plus $3.81B financial account surplus exceed the $3.14B trade gap, but the margin thins after the $1.51B ACU drain from $34.12B gross reserves. Post-ACU reserves — expected at ~$32.6B — are next week’s key print and the single most important number for FX desk positioning. The peg remains defensible at current levels but the book cannot rely on volatile inflow surges to cover a persistent trade deficit. Weak logistics and high business costs flagged by experts this week compound the structural challenge on the export side.