The Brief.

NPL at 35.73% and CAR at 1.56% persist for a twelfth consecutive print — the quarterly disclosure cycle has not refreshed since Q4 2025. The government's decision to shut five troubled NBFIs and guarantee deposits up to BDT 10 lakh marks the first concrete step in the long-trailed cleanup. The fiscal cost of that guarantee is undisclosed; with government bank borrowing at BDT 0.92tn YTD, any material payout adds to an already stretched domestic financing position. Thirty-nine banks launching a $35M venture capital fund signals a sector pivoting toward growth narratives, but the structural capital deficit — CAR at 1.56% versus the 10.5% Basel III floor — makes that pivot cosmetic. Budget session June 7 remains the recapitalisation catalyst.

USD/BDT at 122.75 holds flat for a second session but the underlying pressure vector shifted overnight — Brent spikes to $107.30 from $104.24, a $3/bbl move that directly feeds into BD's petroleum import bill. With post-ACU reserves still below $30B and effective import cover at roughly 3 months, BB's intervention capacity is thinner than the $34.12B headline suggests. Remittance at $3.76B — a prior-month record — partially offsets the trade gap at -$3.14B, but that offset weakens if the May print reverts toward the $2.9B mean. EUR/BDT ticks to 143.52, a minor cross-rate move but one that slightly raises the cost of EU-sourced capital goods. The combination of rising crude and static reserves narrows the FX runway ahead of June.