The Brief.

The board's breakout was the week's clearest market signal — and it came on volume. DSEX pushed to 5,441.66 at Thursday's close, +0.66%, but the tell was participation: turnover surged ~40% to BDT 1,279cr and breadth blew out to 243/98. This was money rotating in, not thin-float drift. The driver is the front-end step-down — the 91d T-Bill has held its lower step at 10.15% since late April and the curve sits near-flat through 10y at 10.91%, so the discount on equity cash-flows eased while bank deposits pay less; cheaper short money found the board. The check is cost-push — a power-tariff hike now confirmed across the board and Brent in the mid-$90s squeeze consumer-counter margins into the next CPI print. Friday traded off-market, so the desk carries the breakout into next week unconfirmed — stay constructive while turnover holds above BDT 900cr, but trim cost-sensitive consumer counters.

The sovereign's funding pull framed the week — and the FY27 budget, due June, will set its price. Government bank borrowing has run to BDT 1.25tn, past its full-year ceiling with a quarter of FY26 left, a BDT 0.33tn jump from the BDT 0.92tn that already breached the cap. NBR collection has climbed to BDT 3.27tn but still trails target, so the gap keeps landing on bank balance sheets. That is the credit-cycle link: every taka the state pulls from a system carrying a 32.26% NPL ratio and CAR 844bp below floor is a taka not extended to private credit, already subdued at 6.03% YoY. The politics confirmed the squeeze this week — the PM directed dropping the wealth tax and money-whitening window, while the IMF cleared a fresh programme that will price the deficit path. The desk reads the FY27 budget as the binding catalyst — watch the deficit-financing mix for how much more falls on the banks.