Headlines
Dollar hits Tk123 inter-bank; IMF probes the 45% FY27 revenue target.
Food's Share of Spending Rises as Income Falls
An IMF chart, built on USDA data, plots food spending as a share of GDP against food's share of total consumer spending. Poorer economies sit further up and further right on both scales.
- ▸Advanced economies hold the bottom-left corner. Food takes roughly 5 to 22 percent of consumer spending in that group, on food outlays worth under about 13 percent of GDP.
- ▸Emerging markets spread across the whole middle of the chart. Their markers run from about 11 percent of consumer spending to above 40 percent, and the group overlaps the advanced cluster at one end and the low-income band at the other.
- ▸Low-income developing countries occupy the top-right. Every marker in that group sits above roughly 29 percent of consumer spending, and the highest of them approach 55 percent.
A household that already spends half its money on food has no cheaper category to move into, so a price rise comes out of everything else it buys. The IMF places Bangladesh in the low-income group at the upper right of this chart. Food and beverages carry the largest single weight in the Bangladesh CPI basket, which is the same fact seen from the other side.
Food inflation belongs in the credit process, not only in the macro commentary. A price move reaches disposable income before it reaches any borrower's file, and the thinnest-buffer books — retail, microfinance-linked exposure, small-ticket SME — feel it first. A risk team reading food prices only off the monthly CPI print is working from the slowest signal available.
Policy & Rates (Bangladesh Bank)
Policy holds 10%; front-end firms — 7-day call money jumps to 10.15%.
FX Reserves
WATCH
- ◆Whether the 7-day's jump to 10.15% is a post-Eid blip or a funding-cost trend into August
- ◆June CPI for the 15% VAT pass-through into the FY27 MPS stance
- ◆BB's dollar-buying pause against the mid — 122.85 held while inter-bank tests Tk123
RISK
- ▼Front-end funding cost re-pricing short-funded ALM (Asset-Liability Management) books if the 7-day holds above 10%
- ▼Reserve build loan-funded — net thinner than the $34.55bn gross on the 1 May print
- ▼A liquidity squeeze forcing a repo window BB's model has signalled against through FY27
Banking
On the Q1 print, the capital hole holds; IMF eases the reform tempo.
WATCH
- ◆The IMF review's write-off-versus-recovery condition against the phased-in reform timeline
- ◆Forensic-audit findings on the five merged banks — resolution accounting, not headline NPLs
- ◆The fiscal cost of the SoB (State-Owned Commercial Bank) backstop against the offshore-tilted FY27 budget
RISK
- ▼CAR 844bp below the 10% floor — solvency hole unmoved on the Sep 2025 read
- ▼A slower phased-in reform tempo pushing the recap timeline into FY28
- ▼SoB defaults at Tk1.89tn concentrating the system's tail in five state banks
Banking is the system's structural bind, and today the state eased the tempo, not the burden. On the Q1 2026 read NPLs hold 32.26% atop a 1.56% CAR from Sep 2025 — 844bp below the 10% floor, carried by write-offs rather than cures. The finance minister's line that IMF-programme reforms will be phased in matters: recognition — the IMF bad-loan review, the forensic audit of five merged banks, the Tk1.89tn state-bank default disclosure — is the precondition for recapitalisation, and a slower cadence pushes the fiscal reckoning further out just as the sovereign stock sits at Tk22.06tn. The trade is unchanged. Making state-bank depositors whole converts private losses into a fiscal liability the offshore-tilted FY27 budget must carry; the re-rating catalyst is fresh capital, not a gentler timeline. The book stays defensive until it lands.
FX & External
Dollar breaks Tk123 inter-bank; trade gap narrows to $1.77bn, cover turns positive.
External Flow Balance
The trade gap narrowed to $1.77bn from $3.04bn as exports rose to $4.03bn; remittance held $2.82bn, now clearing the gap.
First month remittance clears the trade gap since the post-Eid dip began — flows improving even as the dollar slips.
Treasury: watch whether BB defends the 122.85 mid or lets it crawl toward the Tk123 inter-bank print on the next fixing.
WATCH
- ◆Whether BB defends the 122.85 mid or lets it crawl toward Tk123 as inter-bank tests it
- ◆The next remittance print — a second $2.82bn month against the newly-narrower $1.77bn gap
- ◆Uptake on BB's new FC-Taka swap line for zone exporters — dollar-liquidity relief or a stress signal
RISK
- ▼Inter-bank at Tk123 forcing a managed step-down in the mid despite improved flows
- ▼Reserve build rented and paused — net thinner than the $34.55bn gross
- ▼Brent firming to $78.46 toward $80, re-widening the import bill just as it narrowed
FX is the hero today because the price and the flows disagreed. The dollar touched Tk123 in inter-bank trade — above BB's pinned 122.85 mid — on the same day the external account improved: the trade gap narrowed to $1.77bn from $3.04bn, exports firmed to $4.03bn, and steady $2.82bn remittance now clears the gap, tipping cover back positive. That divergence is the tell. Better flows have not bought the mid a rest, which means the pressure is not purely current-account — it is the pinned rate itself being tested, with reserves at $34.55bn still rented and Brent firming to $78.46 toward the $80 line. BB's response — a fresh FC-Taka swap facility for economic-zone exporters, continued BRICS and multilateral budget-support talks — is a defence of the mid, not a float of it. The book stays defensive on FX runway: the flows turned, but the pin is being tested, not trusted.
DSE Markets
DSEX holds 5,849; turnover steady at Tk1,670cr, breadth positive 199:156.
DSEX Index
DSEX holds 5,849.22, flat on the session; DS30 2,200.74, turnover Tk1,670cr, advancers leading 199:156.
Steady after the two-session climb off the 9 Jul reopen (5,804) — no fresh direction on the tape.
Equity desk: 5,849 is the standing mark — with 10 firms at ~40% of value, a flat tape still masks thin breadth.
WATCH
- ◆Whether 5,849 holds as a floor or the IMF bank-review headlines drag the bank-heavy index
- ◆Turnover sustaining above Tk1,600cr as a genuine-depth test
- ◆Concentration — 10 firms at ~40% of value narrowing real breadth
RISK
- ▼Bank-heavy index exposed to the 32.26% distressed-loan pile and Tk1.89tn SoB defaults
- ▼A thin-breadth rally vulnerable to a single large-cap reversal
- ▼Governance flags from the growing list of non-operational listed firms
T-Bonds & T-Bills
Front-end holds the cut — 91d 9.33% — but 7-day cash firms past it.
BD Govt Yield Ladder
Front-end holds its cut — 91d 9.33%, 182d 9.57%, 364d 9.63%; the 10y unmoved at 10.24%, curve steep.
The 91d has held 9.33% since cutting from 9.44%; the 10y unmoved at 10.24% across the window.
ALCO: 7-day cash at 10.15% now tops the 91d cut-off — fund short with care; the next FY27 auction is the re-pricing tell.
WATCH
- ◆Whether the next FY27 auction lifts the 91d cut off 9.33% as cash firms to 10.15%
- ◆June CPI — non-food at 9.09% the risk to the front-end bid
- ◆FY27 gross supply against the Tk22.06tn debt stock
RISK
- ▼7-day cash at 10.15% above the 91d cut-off — a re-pricing gap at the next auction
- ▼FY27 deficit math re-steepening the curve as borrowing returns onshore
- ▼The rally compressing margins on short-funded ALM (Asset-Liability Management) books
Macro & Inflation
On the Mar prints, 12m-avg held 8.6% — lowest since Mar 2023; credit 6.03%.
CPI Trend
CPI 12m-avg held 8.6% on the Mar print — food 8.24%, non-food 9.09% — the disinflation read stalled.
12m-avg at its lowest since Mar 2023 (8.4% then), yet non-food at 9.09% keeps the average from falling.
MPC: BB's model sees FY27 CPI over ceiling, keeping policy tight — yet the front-end at 9.33% says capital, not rates, binds.
WATCH
- ◆June CPI for the 15% VAT and high-powered-money pass-through
- ◆Non-food above 9% (9.09%) as the stickiness tell
- ◆Private credit at 6.03% against the FY27 easing debate
RISK
- ▼The uniform 15% VAT compounding the June CPI print
- ▼Private credit at 6.03% — a 60-period low — signalling dead loan demand
- ▼Import cover at 5.86mo — lowest since Feb 2026 (5.3 then) — as the buffer thins
Remittance
Remittance holds $2.82bn; the narrower $1.77bn gap now flips cover positive.
Remittance Inflow
WATCH
- ◆The next monthly print — whether $2.82bn is a two-month dip or the new base
- ◆June–July seasonal pattern — pre-Eid inflows now past
- ◆Any kerb premium as inter-bank tests Tk123 and BB pauses dollar buys
RISK
- ▼Remittance stuck at $2.82bn if the post-Eid softness extends past a third read
- ▼Informal-channel share widening if the official-market spread widens with inter-bank at Tk123
- ▼Export firming reversing, re-widening the trade gap the remittance now covers
Commodities
Gold eases to $4,085; LNG stale at $15 on a 20 Apr tape.
WATCH
- ◆Gold as a global risk-sentiment proxy — the pullback off $4,129
- ◆LNG spot for June–August monsoon-demand pricing off the stale 20 Apr tape
- ◆Whether a safe-haven bid returns into EM and frontier flows
RISK
- ▼Gold re-firming — a renewed safe-haven bid pressuring EM flows and the BDT at Tk123
- ▼LNG spiking on monsoon power demand, lifting Petrobangla off-take costs
- ▼Oil above $78 lifting the energy-import bill as the trade gap just narrowed
Fiscal
NBR holds Tk3.61tn as the IMF probes a 45% FY27 revenue target.
NBR Tax Revenue
Monthly NBR collection holds Tk3.61tn YTD — lifted off the Tk3.27tn plateau as year-end receipts landed, flat since.
The Tk3.61tn level has held since stepping off the Tk3.27tn plateau; no new monthly print this window.
Treasury/ALCO: with the IMF now questioning a 45% FY27 target, the funding side stays the risk against a Tk22.06tn debt stock.
WATCH
- ◆How NBR bridges the 45% FY27 revenue gap the IMF is questioning — VAT base or rate
- ◆BRICS-bank and multilateral budget-support terms — the pricing on external financing
- ◆The debt-service tail on a Tk22.06tn stock as FY27 financing goes offshore
RISK
- ▼A 45% FY27 revenue target the run-rate cannot support without new VAT measures
- ▼Bank-borrowing over its revised FY26 ceiling at Tk1.25tn
- ▼A flood-driven spending call reopening the deficit from the expenditure side
Fiscal is where the FX runway gets financed, and the IMF just put a number on the strain. The Fund is pressing how NBR reaches a 45%-higher FY27 revenue target when the YTD run-rate holds Tk3.61tn, barely off the Tk3.27tn plateau — an engine that is misfiring being asked to sprint. Two IMF conditions frame the squeeze: revenue must rise and subsidies must narrow to the poor, both politically costly, both tranche-relevant. With domestic bank-borrowing already over its revised FY26 ceiling at Tk1.25tn, FY27 financing tilts offshore — BRICS and multilateral budget support — which is precisely what is renting the $34.55bn reserve buffer. The chain is tight: a revenue miss widens the deficit, deepens the offshore borrowing, and leaves the mid dependent on external credit arriving. Watch the VAT lever against a Tk22.06tn debt stock.
Iran War & Oil
Brent firms to $78.46, WTI $73.68 — the cushion narrows toward $80.
Brent Crude
Brent firmed to $78.46 (WTI $73.68), up ~$2.45 from the prior read and closing on the $80 line.
Spot has climbed off the $76 area toward $80 — the zone underwriting FY27's pre-war oil math.
Treasury: the import-bill cushion is thinning just as the dollar tests Tk123 — watch the US-Iran accord and the $80 line.
WATCH
- ◆The $80 line — whether the US-Iran accord caps Brent or it round-trips above
- ◆Oil pass-through into June CPI atop the 15% VAT
- ◆Import-bill drag against the newly-narrower $1.77bn trade gap and the Tk123 inter-bank print
RISK
- ▼Brent round-tripping above $80 re-arming the subsidy and import-bill tail
- ▼Hormuz-route risk to Bangladeshi cargo through the strait
- ▼FY27 projections under-provisioning if oil holds above $78
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