Headlines
Stayed loans jump eightfold as the equity floor and gas supply both give.
Food's Share of Spending Rises as Income Falls
An IMF chart, built on USDA data, plots food spending as a share of GDP against food's share of total consumer spending. Poorer economies sit further up and further right on both scales.
- ▸Advanced economies hold the bottom-left corner. Food takes roughly 5 to 22 percent of consumer spending in that group, on food outlays worth under about 13 percent of GDP.
- ▸Emerging markets spread across the whole middle of the chart. Their markers run from about 11 percent of consumer spending to above 40 percent, and the group overlaps the advanced cluster at one end and the low-income band at the other.
- ▸Low-income developing countries occupy the top-right. Every marker in that group sits above roughly 29 percent of consumer spending, and the highest of them approach 55 percent.
A household that already spends half its money on food has no cheaper category to move into, so a price rise comes out of everything else it buys. The IMF places Bangladesh in the low-income group at the upper right of this chart. Food and beverages carry the largest single weight in the Bangladesh CPI basket, which is the same fact seen from the other side.
Food inflation belongs in the credit process, not only in the macro commentary. A price move reaches disposable income before it reaches any borrower's file, and the thinnest-buffer books — retail, microfinance-linked exposure, small-ticket SME — feel it first. A risk team reading food prices only off the monthly CPI print is working from the slowest signal available.
Policy & Rates (Bangladesh Bank)
The 7-day squeezed to 10.34% above policy; reserves dated 1 May.
FX Reserves
WATCH
- ◆The next FY27 bill auction — whether the 182d holds 9.79% at six months
- ◆Whether the 7-day squeeze unwinds after the July turn or the term curve stays firm
- ◆The next reserves print to supersede the 1 May $34.55bn read
RISK
- ▼A reserve buffer dated 1 May quoted against a fuel bill and a regas outage now 10-15 days long
- ▼Cost-push inflation the 10% policy rate cannot reach, on the central bank's own admission
- ▼The 7-day trading through policy raising the marginal cost of the FY27 borrowing programme
Banking
On the Q1 print NPLs held 32.26%, CAR 1.56% — stayed loans now eightfold.
WATCH
- ◆Whether Q2 2026 statements land the stayed-loan overhang on BSEC's quarterly clock
- ◆Any Q2 2026 CAR disclosure superseding the Sep 2025 read of 1.56%
- ◆Bank scrip against the failed 5,784 DSE floor
RISK
- ▼Stayed loans eightfold — a recovery pipeline frozen while the classified book compounds
- ▼Private credit at 6.03%, a 60-period low, capping the earnings that rebuild capital
- ▼The state-bank tail carrying the corporate gap as the DSE marks the bank-heavy float down
The tape and the courts told the same story today. DSEX broke below the 9 Jul reopen floor to 5,784.37 — the failed-floor leg the market had threatened — while loans under court stay were reported up eightfold in three years. Read together, they price a bad book larger than the 32.26% Q1 NPL headline admits: a stay order freezes recovery without clearing classification, so the true impaired stock sits above the printed ratio. Against CAR of 1.56% on the September read — 844bp below the 10% floor, a cushion absent rather than thin — there is no capital to absorb the reclassification when Q2 disclosure forces it. The engine that rebuilds capital is stalled: private credit growth reads 6.03% on the February print, a 60-period low, starving retained earnings on a book souring faster than it lends. The dispersion stays the trade — own the private compounders, avoid the SCB tail.
FX & External
USD/BDT held 122.85 a ninth session; the $1.05bn cushion holds.
External Flow Balance
Trade gap held $1.77bn — exports $4.03bn against $2.82bn remittance — leaving $1.05bn of monthly cover as Brent eased to $91.93.
Import cover 5.86mo on the March read — lowest since Feb 2026 (5.3 then) — barrel now $91.93.
Treasury: hedge energy lines while crude is off $100 — a spot-LNG month is one fuel-heavy import from turning the $1.05bn cover negative.
WATCH
- ◆Whether Brent holds below $92 — it eased to $91.93 — or the Gulf premium rebuilds
- ◆The next trade print — how much of the $1.05bn cushion a spot-LNG month takes
- ◆Offshore dollar funding not taking off, leaving the reserve build on borrowing
RISK
- ▼Import cover 5.86mo on the March read — lowest since Feb 2026 (5.3 then) — with the regas terminal down
- ▼A $63.4bn export target requiring 15% growth off a base flagged unlikely to rebound
- ▼A spot-LNG month turning the $1.05bn cushion negative even with crude off $100
DSE Markets
DSEX broke below 5,804 to 5,784.37 — the failed-floor leg landed.
DSEX Index
DSEX fell 0.34% to 5,784.37 — below the 9 Jul reopen floor of 5,804 — with 240 decliners to 116 on Tk781cr turnover.
Ten prints from the 9 Jul reopen at 5,804 — a 5,926 high on 20 Jul, now broken below the base.
Equity desk: the floor failed on thin volume, not a flush — watch 5,784 as resistance or the next leg lower.
WATCH
- ◆Whether 5,784 becomes resistance or the failed floor opens the next leg down
- ◆Turnover — Tk781cr is too thin to call either a bottom or a flush
- ◆Bank scrip against the stayed-loan overhang and Q2 disclosure
RISK
- ▼The bank-heavy float re-rating down as stayed loans and retail defaults hit the Q2 clock
- ▼A US 10% tariff pressuring the export names inside the index
- ▼A failed floor with no capitulation volume — distribution, not a washout
The floor the market spent ten sessions defending gave way. DSEX closed 5,784.37 — 0.34% lower and the first print below the 9 Jul reopen floor of 5,804 — ending a round-trip that ran from a 5,926 high on 20 Jul back through the base. The break was quiet: Tk781cr turnover, thinner than the Tk939cr down day that first tested the floor. Breadth was only 2-to-1 negative, 240 down to 116, narrower than the prior session's 5-to-1 — the cap-weighted index fell on its heavyweight bank names, not a broad rout. That is the tell: the bank-heavy float drags the index while the wider tape holds up. The catalyst is credit — NPLs 32.26%, CAR 1.56%, 844bp below floor, and today's report that stayed loans jumped eightfold, pricing a bad book the ratio understates. Fade rallies in the SCB names; the failed floor is the level to watch lower.
T-Bonds & T-Bills
182d held 9.79% above the 364d; the 10y steady at 10.24%.
BD Govt Yield Ladder
182d held 9.79% and 91d 9.30%; the 10y steady at 10.24% with 5s10s at 56bp — the belly at 9.68% below the six-month bill.
The 182d cleared ~9.40% at seven straight auctions before jumping to 9.79%; the 364d held 9.57% across the window.
ALCO: six-month still yields above twelve-month — fund short; the 10y at 10.24% keeps duration on hold until the next auction clears.
WATCH
- ◆The next FY27 auction — whether the 182d defends 9.79% or the inversion unwinds
- ◆The 10y at 10.24% — whether duration supply cheapens it back toward the 10.34% recent high
- ◆5s10s at 56bp — the steepening that reprices any long-dated fixed-rate book
RISK
- ▼Duration marks if the 10y cheapening resumes toward 10.34%
- ▼Negative carry on the front book — 182d at 9.79% against a 364d asset at 9.57%
- ▼FY27 gross supply repeating the six-month clear at each subsequent auction
Macro & Inflation
On the March prints credit held 6.03%; the money exists, borrowers don't.
CPI Trend
CPI 12m-avg held 8.6% on the March print — food 8.24%, non-food 9.09% — disinflation has flattened rather than resumed.
The 12m-avg is lowest since Mar 2023 (8.4% then), with food lowest since Dec 2025 (7.7% then).
MPC: with the real policy rate at 1.29% and credit at 6.03%, the next MPS holds — a cut cannot reach cost-push inflation.
WATCH
- ◆The next CPI print — the first to carry the recent oil spike into a non-food line already at 9.09%
- ◆Private credit at 6.03% — whether the next print breaks the 60-period low or confirms it
- ◆Import cover 5.86mo on the March read — lowest since Feb 2026 (5.3 then)
RISK
- ▼Real policy rate at 1.29% — lowest since Feb 2026 (0.9% then) — little room before it turns negative
- ▼Private credit at 6.03%, a 60-period low, as public capex contracts alongside
- ▼REER at 102.78 keeping the taka dear in real terms while exports face a 15% growth test
Remittance
Remittance held $2.82bn; cover stays $1.05bn as Brent eases to $91.93.
Remittance Inflow
WATCH
- ◆The next monthly print — whether $2.82bn is a floor or the top of a slide
- ◆How much of the $1.05bn cushion the next trade print gives up to a spot-LNG month
- ◆Offshore dollar funding not taking off — leaving remittance and exports the only inflows
RISK
- ▼A single spot-LNG-heavy import month turning the $1.05bn cover negative even with Brent off $100
- ▼Fourteen flat prints — the line is not growing while the bill it funds moves
- ▼The US 10% tariff and a 15% export-growth target denting the receipts that share the account
Commodities
Gold firmed to $4,093 as crude eased; the regas outage lifts LNG risk.
WATCH
- ◆Whether gold's bid extends or fades if the Gulf premium rebuilds
- ◆LNG spot against the 20 Apr $15/MMBtu print — a regas outage into peak demand
- ◆Food and energy import lines bidding for the same $1.05bn monthly cushion
RISK
- ▼A terminal-driven spot LNG print landing well above $15/MMBtu into the monsoon month
- ▼Food and energy import lines bidding for the same $1.05bn monthly cushion
- ▼Pass-through into a non-food CPI line at 9.09% on the March print
Fiscal
NBR stuck at Tk3.61tn; development spending dips to a worrying level.
NBR Tax Revenue
Monthly NBR collection printed flat again, holding the YTD line at Tk3.61tn — no new receipt has landed across the fourteen-print window.
Fourteen prints in the window, all at Tk3.61tn — the last new monthly figure predates the window entirely.
Treasury: with the 10y at 10.24% and revenue frozen, FY27 funding cost rises against a flat receipt line — watch the next NBR print.
WATCH
- ◆The next monthly NBR print — the Tk3.61tn line has not moved across the window
- ◆ADP execution — development spending flagged at a very worrying level
- ◆The FY27 domestic borrowing programme against an inverted curve at 9.79% for six months
RISK
- ▼Development spending contracting alongside private credit at a 60-period low — both capex engines stall
- ▼A corporate-tax take half the peer rate — the base is thin, not just flat
- ▼A $421b SDG financing gap the domestic revenue base cannot fund
The fiscal side is contracting on both legs. NBR collection holds flat at Tk3.61tn across the window while development spending has, on the FE's read, dipped to a very worrying level — the public-capex engine throttling back at the same moment private credit growth sits at a 60-period low of 6.03%. Both drivers of demand are stalling together. The revenue base cannot pick up the slack: corporate tax runs half the peer rate, and the FY27 VAT target now leans on a four-pillar mobilisation plan that is aspiration until a monthly print moves the Tk3.61tn line. Against a $421b SDG financing gap and a 10y at 10.24%, the funding arithmetic worsens — a thin, flat receipt base borrowing dearer to cover a widening spend commitment. Watch the next NBR print and ADP release; the fiscal impulse the credit cycle needs is going the wrong way.
Iran War & Oil
Brent eased to $91.93, off $100 but $11.93 above the $80 FY27 line.
Brent Crude
Brent eased to $91.93 and WTI to $84.87 — last week's break above $100 has fully unwound, the spread now $7.06.
Brent now prints $11.93 above the $80 FY27 line, back below the $100 it touched last week.
Treasury: crude relief is real, but the regas outage shifts energy risk to spot cargo — the import bill stays $11.93 above budget.
WATCH
- ◆Whether $92 holds or the Gulf premium rebuilds on the Houthi–Saudi escalation
- ◆The regas outage — spot LNG demand into monsoon, the minister flagging 10-15 more days
- ◆The FY27 subsidy provision against a spot price still $11.93 above its $80 assumption
RISK
- ▼The premium rebuilding onto the same $1.05bn monthly cushion
- ▼A terminal-driven spot LNG spike offsetting the relief from crude easing
- ▼Pass-through into a non-food CPI line at 9.09% on the March print
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