Headlines
External financing turns net-negative — foreign loans at a 14-year low.
The front page turns on the financing account. Foreign loan commitments have fallen to a 14-year low as repayments hit a record $4.49bn — the external-debt line is now draining the reserve stock rather than feeding it, and it does so as the FY27 borrowing programme opens. The offsets read thinner than the headlines suggest: remittance rose 15.8% YoY to $2.86bn in July but held below $3bn for a second month, and the taka eased to USD/BDT 123.82 after a fourteen-print hold at 122.85. Reserves at $37.58bn still buy cover, but the FY27 gap now funds onshore — at a 364d 10.09%, 59bp above the 9.50% policy anchor cut on 30 July — while offshore commitments dry up. The pressure has migrated from the trade channel to the capital account: fund domestically, watch the peg for the first crack, and price sovereign-linked exposure to a dearer refinancing path.
Food's Share of Spending Rises as Income Falls
An IMF chart, built on USDA data, plots food spending as a share of GDP against food's share of total consumer spending. Poorer economies sit further up and further right on both scales.
- ▸Advanced economies hold the bottom-left corner. Food takes roughly 5 to 22 percent of consumer spending in that group, on food outlays worth under about 13 percent of GDP.
- ▸Emerging markets spread across the whole middle of the chart. Their markers run from about 11 percent of consumer spending to above 40 percent, and the group overlaps the advanced cluster at one end and the low-income band at the other.
- ▸Low-income developing countries occupy the top-right. Every marker in that group sits above roughly 29 percent of consumer spending, and the highest of them approach 55 percent.
A household that already spends half its money on food has no cheaper category to move into, so a price rise comes out of everything else it buys. The IMF places Bangladesh in the low-income group at the upper right of this chart. Food and beverages carry the largest single weight in the Bangladesh CPI basket, which is the same fact seen from the other side.
Food inflation belongs in the credit process, not only in the macro commentary. A price move reaches disposable income before it reaches any borrower's file, and the thinnest-buffer books — retail, microfinance-linked exposure, small-ticket SME — feel it first. A risk team reading food prices only off the monthly CPI print is working from the slowest signal available.
Policy & Rates (Bangladesh Bank)
Anchor cut to 9.50% on 30 July; the 14-day call at 10.38% prints 88bp above policy.
FX Reserves
WATCH
- ◆Whether the fresh yields-dive report shows through as the 14-day call breaks below 10% at the next print
- ◆The August bill auction — whether the 364d holds 10.09% or eases off its July repricing
- ◆Deposit-rate pass-through as the FE report flags bank deposit yields diving
RISK
- ▼Interbank tightness at the 14-day (10.38%) not passing through to term deposit pricing
- ▼A real policy rate near 0.79% after the 30 July cut thinning the taka's carry cushion
- ▼The front bill curve 40-52bp dearer than a month ago repricing FY27 borrowing
Banking
Q1 book frozen at 32.26% NPL; external financing now tightens too.
WATCH
- ◆Whether Q2 2026 statements land the court-stayed loan overhang on BSEC's quarterly clock
- ◆Cross-border credit lines as foreign loan commitments hit a 14-year low
- ◆Any Q2 CAR disclosure superseding the Sep 2025 1.56% read
RISK
- ▼Foreign banks' 2025 lending pullback thinning the cross-border credit the weakest sheets replace
- ▼The court-stayed loan stock understating the printed 32.26% NPL ratio
- ▼A dearer FY27 refinancing path at a 364d 10.09% pressuring leveraged corporate books
The banking book is frozen on last quarter's numbers while the fresh pressure arrives through the capital account. NPLs hold 32.26% on the Q1 print and system CAR reads 1.56% on the September figure — 844bp below the 10% floor, a cushion absent, not thin. Today's news sharpens the external channel: foreign loan commitments have fallen to a 14-year low and repayments hit a record $4.49bn, thinning exactly the cross-border credit the weakest sheets can least replace. Meanwhile the FY27 gap now refinances onshore at a 364d 10.09%, above policy — a dearer cost of funds for the leveraged corporate books that already anchor the tail. Dispersion stays the trade: own the private compounders whose books can carry a costlier funding quarter, fade the state-owned commercial bank (SCB) scrip that cannot.
FX & External
Taka eased to 123.82 off a fourteen-print 122.85 hold; reserves $37.58bn.
External Flow Balance
Trade gap held $1.77bn — exports $4.03bn, remittance $2.82bn — but the taka eased to USD/BDT 123.82 off its 122.85 hold.
USD/BDT held 122.85 for fourteen prints before easing to 123.82; reserves $37.58bn on the 30 Jun print.
Treasury: the adjustment reaches the rate — watch 123.82 for a managed crawl lower as foreign financing thins.
WATCH
- ◆Whether 123.82 holds or the taka slips further as foreign financing thins
- ◆The next reserves print confirming the 30 Jun $37.58bn build holds
- ◆Whether the $2.86bn July remittance is a floor after a second month below $3bn
RISK
- ▼Foreign loan commitments at a 14-year low draining net external inflows against the reserve buffer
- ▼Record $4.49bn debt repayment bidding for the same FX the trade gap consumes
- ▼The peg break from 122.85 signalling the adjustment shifting from stock to rate
The external account is absorbing a capital-account shock, and this time the rate is moving with it. The taka eased to USD/BDT 123.82, breaking a fourteen-print 122.85 hold, as foreign loan commitments fell to a 14-year low and repayments hit a record $4.49bn — net external financing is turning against the reserve stock. The offsets hold, but only just: reserves rebuilt to $37.58bn on the 30 Jun print and July remittance rose 15.8% YoY to $2.86bn, though that is a second month below $3bn. With the trade gap still $1.77bn, the buffer now funds three claims at once — the import bill, the record repayment, and a thinner offshore pipeline. The adjustment has migrated from the reserve stock to the rate: watch 123.82 for confirmation the peg is being managed lower, not defended, and price FX-linked exposure to a slower-crawl regime.
DSE Markets
DSEX reopened +0.28% to 5,895.58, back near the 5,900 cap.
DSEX Index
DSEX reopened +0.28% to 5,895.58, reclaiming the 5,900 line it broke to 5,784 and retook last week.
Ten sessions bracketed by a 5,784 low and 5,900; the reopen sits just under the high.
Equity desk: watch whether 5,900 turns to support or caps the bank-heavy float again on thin Tk1,043cr turnover.
WATCH
- ◆Whether 5,900 turns to support or caps the bank-heavy float again
- ◆Turnover follow-through — Tk1,043cr is thin confirmation of the reclaim
- ◆Bank scrip as NPLs stay 32.26% and CAR reads 1.56%
RISK
- ▼The financing-squeeze headlines repricing sentiment into the reopen
- ▼NPLs still 32.26% under the bank-heavy float — no credit-cycle repair
- ▼Thin turnover leaving the 5,900 reclaim vulnerable to a fade
T-Bonds & T-Bills
Front holds 40-52bp dearer — 364d 10.09%, 59bp above the 9.50% anchor.
BD Govt Yield Ladder
The repriced bill curve held — 364d 10.09%, 182d 9.99%, 91d 9.79% — while the 10y eased 1bp to 10.24%.
The 364d held 9.57% through eight prints before its 52bp jump to 10.09% — steady since.
ALCO: the front sits 59bp above the 9.50% policy and 40-52bp dearer than a month ago — price term funding to the auction, not the anchor.
WATCH
- ◆Whether the fresh yields-dive report shows the 364d easing off 10.09% at the next auction
- ◆The 10y at 10.24% — whether duration supply cheapens it toward the 10.34% recent high
- ◆5s10s at 56bp — the slope repricing any long-dated fixed-rate book
RISK
- ▼The front clearing 40-52bp dearer than a month ago repricing FY27 borrowing
- ▼The 364d above policy signalling term funding stays expensive into August
- ▼A dearer onshore path as foreign loan commitments at a 14-year low push funding domestic
Macro & Inflation
On the Feb print credit held 6.03% — a 60-period low; CPI 12m-avg 8.6%.
CPI Trend
CPI 12m-avg held 8.6% on the March print — food 8.24%, non-food 9.09% — disinflation has flattened, not resumed.
The 12m-avg is lowest since Mar 2023 (8.4% then), with food lowest since Dec 2025 (7.7% then).
MPC: with non-food at 9.09% and the August LPG hike building, the next CPI print carries fresh cost-push — watch it before easing.
WATCH
- ◆The next CPI print — the first to carry the August LPG hike into the 9.09% non-food line
- ◆Private credit at 6.03% — whether the next print breaks the 60-period low
- ◆Import cover 5.86mo on the March read — the 30 Jun reserve build to $37.58bn should lift it
RISK
- ▼Sticky 9.09% non-food inflation as the August LPG hike feeds the next cost-push print
- ▼Private credit at a 60-period low with M2 at 10.52% — liquidity present, loan demand absent
- ▼REER at 102.78 keeping the taka dear as the peg eases to 123.82
Remittance
July remittance rose 15.8% YoY to $2.86bn — a second month below $3bn.
Remittance Inflow
WATCH
- ◆Whether $2.86bn is a floor or the top of a slide after a second month below $3bn
- ◆How much cushion a costlier import month leaves over the $1.77bn gap
- ◆BB's new PayPal, Payoneer-style rails — a structural add to the inflow channel
RISK
- ▼A second month below $3bn signalling the post-Eid base is softening
- ▼The line's cushion bidding against a record $4.49bn external repayment
- ▼Export competitiveness eroding as the taka eases to 123.82
Commodities
Gold eased to $4,049.10; the August LPG hike renews the energy-cost push.
WATCH
- ◆The August LPG hike — Tk70 per 12kg bottle feeding the energy cost base
- ◆Spot LNG against the stale 20 Apr $15/MMBtu print
- ◆Whether gold's bid rebuilds if the Gulf premium returns
RISK
- ▼Energy import cost feeding the sticky 9.09% non-food CPI line
- ▼The LPG hike compounding on the household energy bill into the monsoon month
- ▼A terminal-driven spot LNG print well above $15/MMBtu
Fiscal
NBR held Tk3.61tn; foreign loan commitments hit a 14-year low.
NBR Tax Revenue
Monthly NBR collection printed flat again, holding the YTD line at Tk3.61tn — no new receipt across the fourteen-print window.
Fourteen prints, all Tk3.61tn — the last new monthly figure predates the window.
Treasury: revenue frozen while the FY27 gap opens against 14-year-low foreign commitments — funding clears onshore at a 364d 10.09%.
WATCH
- ◆The next monthly NBR print — the Tk3.61tn line hasn't moved across the window
- ◆Net foreign financing as commitments hit a 14-year low and repayments reach a record $4.49bn
- ◆Govt bank borrowing beyond the 30 Jun Tk0.94tn as the FY27 programme opens
RISK
- ▼A thin revenue base refinancing the FY27 gap onshore at a repriced 364d 10.09%
- ▼Foreign aid net inflows falling as debt repayments cut external financing
- ▼Development spending contracting into a private-credit 60-period low
Iran War & Oil
Brent holds $90.12 — $10.12 over the $80 FY27 line; WTI eased to $84.67.
Brent Crude
Brent held $90.12 while WTI eased to $84.67 — the Brent-WTI spread widened to $5.45.
Brent now prints $10.12 above the $80 FY27 line, holding the level it retook last week.
Treasury: the import bill stays $10.12/bbl above the FY27 assumption — watch the subsidy line and energy-importer credit.
WATCH
- ◆Whether Brent holds above $90 or the Gulf premium rebuilds on renewed escalation
- ◆The FY27 subsidy provision against a spot price now $10.12 above its $80 assumption
- ◆The August LPG hike as energy cost-push feeds the next CPI print
RISK
- ▼Brent above $90 pass-through into a sticky 9.09% non-food CPI line
- ▼The crude bill compounding a thinner FX buffer as the taka eases to 123.82
- ▼A spot-LNG spike offsetting any WTI relief on the monsoon-month bill
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