Headlines
Fresh tape thins — deposits slip as start-up funding collapses 95%.
Food's Share of Spending Rises as Income Falls
An IMF chart, built on USDA data, plots food spending as a share of GDP against food's share of total consumer spending. Poorer economies sit further up and further right on both scales.
- ▸Advanced economies hold the bottom-left corner. Food takes roughly 5 to 22 percent of consumer spending in that group, on food outlays worth under about 13 percent of GDP.
- ▸Emerging markets spread across the whole middle of the chart. Their markers run from about 11 percent of consumer spending to above 40 percent, and the group overlaps the advanced cluster at one end and the low-income band at the other.
- ▸Low-income developing countries occupy the top-right. Every marker in that group sits above roughly 29 percent of consumer spending, and the highest of them approach 55 percent.
A household that already spends half its money on food has no cheaper category to move into, so a price rise comes out of everything else it buys. The IMF places Bangladesh in the low-income group at the upper right of this chart. Food and beverages carry the largest single weight in the Bangladesh CPI basket, which is the same fact seen from the other side.
Food inflation belongs in the credit process, not only in the macro commentary. A price move reaches disposable income before it reaches any borrower's file, and the thinnest-buffer books — retail, microfinance-linked exposure, small-ticket SME — feel it first. A risk team reading food prices only off the monthly CPI print is working from the slowest signal available.
Policy & Rates (Bangladesh Bank)
Front pinned at policy — call money 9.48%, the belly premium gone.
FX Reserves
WATCH
- ◆Whether O/N and 14-day call hold ≤9.50% or month-end demand rebuilds the belly premium
- ◆The overdue reserves refresh past the 30 Jun $37.58bn read
- ◆Deposit-rate pass-through as July's bill-curve drop flows into term funding
RISK
- ▼Rate relief landing into 33-year-low 4.98% private credit — the cut fails to transmit to lending
- ▼The 7-day's 11.95% dislocation spreading if a single lender's funding gap widens
- ▼A real policy rate of 0.34% on the Jun read leaving a razor-thin carry cushion post-cut
Banking
Book frozen on Q1's 32.26% NPL; the credit engine stays demand-starved.
WATCH
- ◆Whether Q2 2026 statements finally land the court-stayed loan overhang on BSEC's quarterly clock
- ◆Any Q2 CAR disclosure superseding the 1.56% Q3 2025 read
- ◆Bank deposits reportedly slipping — funding-side strain onto a demand-starved book
RISK
- ▼Private credit dead at a 33-year-low 4.98% — weak sheets cannot out-grow their NPL stock
- ▼Gas-driven RMG closures pushing fresh delinquency into the next NPL print
- ▼Court-stayed loan stock understating the printed 32.26% NPL ratio
The banking book opens frozen on last quarter's prints while new pressure arrives through the real economy. NPLs hold 32.26% on the Q1 2026 read; system CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio) is 1.56% on the Q3 2025 read, 844bp below the 10% floor — a cushion gone, not thin. The live signal is demand: private credit stuck at 4.98%, a 33-year low, so even solvent lenders face a shrinking book, and FE now reports deposits slipping after a brief upturn — strain on both sides of the sheet. Layer the gas crunch idling a fifth of garment capacity onto RMG exposure, and the next delinquency wave is a real-economy story, not a policy one. The 30 July cut is real but useless here: cheaper funding cannot repair a sheet with no borrowers. Dispersion stays the trade — own the private compounders that carry a lean quarter, fade the SCB (state-owned commercial bank) scrip that cannot.
FX & External
Taka steady at 123.82; every funding input is quietly cooling.
External Flow Balance
Trade gap held -$1.77bn — exports $4.03bn against $2.82bn July remittance — as USD/BDT steadied at 123.82 and Brent held $82.76.
USD/BDT broke its 122.85 hold to 123.82 in late July; reserves $37.58bn on the 30 Jun read.
Treasury: gold's spike and Brent above $80 reverse the import-bill relief — watch the overdue reserve print as remittance and RMG cool.
WATCH
- ◆Whether 123.82 holds or the taka resumes its crawl as foreign financing thins
- ◆The overdue reserves refresh past the 30 Jun $37.58bn read
- ◆Whether Brent holds above the $80 FY27 line or the Hormuz bid fades
RISK
- ▼Gold's surge and Brent above $80 re-widening the import bill remittance must clear
- ▼Record $4.49bn external debt repayment bidding for the same FX the $1.77bn trade gap consumes
- ▼Overseas departures at a five-year low thinning the forward remittance that funds the peg
The peg's funding math still clears, but every input is cooling at once. USD/BDT sits at 123.82, steady since the late-July break off 122.85; reserves of $37.58bn on the 30 Jun read hold import cover near 6.48mo — adequate, but overdue. Both offsetting legs are softening: July exports slipped 0.9% YoY as the gas crunch idles a fifth of garment capacity, and remittance logged a second month under $3bn at $2.82bn as overseas departures hit a five-year low. The inflow still covers the $1.77bn trade gap by $1.05bn, but the margin has stopped growing — and a record $4.49bn external repayment bids for the same dollars. Today's gold spike to $4,403 and Brent back above the $80 FY27 line remove the sub-$80 import relief that briefly lightened the drain. Treasury: hold the constructive taka stance, but stop banking the free lunch — guard the buffer into the overdue reserve print.
DSE Markets
DSEX pinned ~5,894 on 6 Aug; weak breadth beneath a flat index.
DSEX Index
DSEX held ~5,894 on 6 Aug, capped below 5,900 — a 5,784-to-5,900 band; breadth negative 170/176 on Tk1,111cr turnover.
Ten sessions bracketed by a 5,784 low and a 5,900 high; the cap has not broken across the window.
Equity desk: a flat index masking negative breadth — stay selective until 5,900 breaks on volume.
WATCH
- ◆Whether the post-holiday reopen finally clears 5,900 or the cap holds again
- ◆Turnover follow-through — a slip under Tk1,000cr confirms fading conviction
- ◆Bank scrip as private credit prints a 33-year-low 4.98% and NPLs hold Q1's 32.26%
RISK
- ▼The late-session sell-off — Tk2,534cr of market cap shed — repricing float into the reopen
- ▼The gas-driven garment break repricing RMG and industrial earnings
- ▼A thin-conviction tape fading on negative breadth into the reopen
T-Bonds & T-Bills
Front holds near policy — 364d 9.54%; July's spike stays unwound.
BD Govt Yield Ladder
The front holds July's unwind — 364d 9.54%, 182d 9.53%, 91d 9.30% — while the 10y sits at 10.25%.
The 364d ran 10.09% for six prints after its July jump, then cut 55bp to 9.535%, held five prints since.
ALCO: price term funding to the auction, not the July spike — lock relief before deposit rates catch down.
WATCH
- ◆Whether the next auction holds the front near 9.50% or cuts further below policy
- ◆The 10y at 10.25% — whether FY27 duration supply cheapens it off the level
- ◆5s10s at 57bp — the slope repricing long-dated fixed-rate books
RISK
- ▼The front collapse signalling weak credit demand — 33-year-low 4.98% private growth — not just liquidity
- ▼Deposit and lending rates lagging the bill-curve drop, squeezing bank margins
- ▼Long-end supply into a thin FY27 auction calendar steepening 5s10s from 57bp
Macro & Inflation
Private credit stuck at a 33-year-low 4.98%; June non-food CPI firm at 9.61%.
CPI Trend
June point-to-point inflation held firm — non-food 9.61%, food 8.6% — while the 12m-avg sat at 8.6% on the older March print.
The 12m-avg is lowest since Mar 2023 (8.4% then) — a March read; June point-to-point is firming again.
MPC: with June non-food 9.61% and the August LPG hike not yet in the base, hold before easing.
WATCH
- ◆The next CPI print — first to carry the August LPG hike into the 9.61% June non-food line
- ◆Private credit at 4.98% — whether the print marks a floor or extends the slide
- ◆Import cover 6.48mo on the June read — whether the overdue reserve print holds it
RISK
- ▼June non-food inflation at 9.61% firming as the August LPG hike compounds the next cost-push print
- ▼Private credit at a 33-year-low 4.98% with M2 10.52% on the Feb read — liquidity present, demand absent
- ▼A real policy rate of 0.34% on the June read leaving a razor-thin carry cushion post-cut
Remittance
July remittance held $2.82bn; the migration pipeline is cooling.
Remittance Inflow
WATCH
- ◆Whether $2.82bn is a floor or the top of a slide after a second month under $3bn
- ◆Overseas departures at a five-year low — how fast the migration slowdown feeds monthly inflow
- ◆BB's new PayPal, Payoneer-style rails — a structural add to the inflow channel
RISK
- ▼Overseas job departures at a five-year low signalling a thinner remittance pipeline in coming quarters
- ▼The line's $1.05bn cushion bidding against a record $4.49bn external repayment
- ▼Gold's spike and Brent above $80 re-widening the import bill this inflow must clear
Remittance is the load-bearing wall of the peg, and for now it holds — but the mortar is thinning. July printed $2.82bn, flash $2.86bn, +15.8% YoY, a second straight month under $3bn; the inflow still covers the $1.77bn trade gap by $1.05bn. The problem is the forward book, not the current one: overseas departures have fallen to a five-year low, and the migration pipeline sets remittance one to two years out. Layer on a record $4.49bn external repayment bidding for the same dollars, July exports -0.9% YoY, and a reserve stock of $37.58bn on the 30 Jun read that is comfortable but two prints overdue — and the taka's funding rests on an inflow whose growth has stalled. BB's new PayPal- and Payoneer-style rails widen the channel, not the source. Treasury: the constructive taka stance survives on $2.82bn, but this is the number to watch monthly — the cushion has stopped compounding.
Fiscal
NBR frozen at Tk3.61tn; FY26 tax-return filing at a multi-year low.
NBR Tax Revenue
Monthly NBR collection printed flat again, holding the YTD line at Tk3.61tn — no new receipt across the fourteen-print window.
Fourteen prints, all Tk3.61tn — the last new monthly figure predates the window.
Treasury: revenue frozen, but the FY27 gap funds cheaper — onshore clears at a 364d 9.54%, ~55bp below July's spike.
WATCH
- ◆The next monthly NBR print — the Tk3.61tn line has not moved all window
- ◆FY26 tax-return filing at a multi-year low — whether the receipt base keeps eroding
- ◆Whether the 364d stays near 9.54% into the FY27 issuance calendar
RISK
- ▼A thin revenue base carrying the FY27 gap as tax-return filing hits a multi-year low
- ▼Gas-driven factory closures denting VAT and income receipts into the next NBR print
- ▼The bill-curve relief reversing if issuance supply outruns the demand shortfall
Iran War & Oil
Brent holds $82.76, above the $80 FY27 line; premium lingers.
Brent Crude
Brent holds $82.76, WTI $77.44 — the Brent-WTI spread near $5.32 — crude steady after last week's whipsaw above $80.
Brent sits $2.76 above the $80 FY27 line, versus a $10 premium a fortnight ago and sub-$80 last Thursday.
Treasury: the import bill stays above the FY27 assumption — watch the subsidy line and energy-importer credit into the gas crunch.
WATCH
- ◆Whether Brent holds above $80 or the Hormuz bid fades back under the FY27 line
- ◆The FY27 subsidy provision now that spot Brent sits above its $80 assumption
- ◆The August LPG hike feeding energy cost-push into the June 9.61% non-food line
RISK
- ▼A renewed Gulf escalation snapping Brent toward the $90 seen a fortnight ago and re-widening the import bill
- ▼A domestic gas-supply shortfall forcing costlier spot LNG as factories idle
- ▼The August LPG hike compounding the firm 9.61% June non-food CPI line
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