Headlines
Fresh tape runs external — Brent and gold up as risk appetite drains.
Today's tape runs external. Brent added $1 to $82.76 on uncertainty over an end to the Iran war, and gold printed a record $4,403 on Strait of Hormuz risk — the Gulf premium is back in the import bill just as it looked to fade. Beneath the global bid, domestic conviction thins: retail is exiting T-bills as institutions crowd the auction, and a late-session sell-off shed Tk2,534cr of DSE market cap into the reopen. Cost-push from without, risk appetite draining from within — the $37.58bn reserve stock and $2.82bn remittance base now clear a wider oil bill. Treasury: keep the book defensive on import-sensitive credit and guard margin into the overdue reserve print, not the fading sub-$80 dip.
Food's Share of Spending Rises as Income Falls
An IMF chart, built on USDA data, plots food spending as a share of GDP against food's share of total consumer spending. Poorer economies sit further up and further right on both scales.
- ▸Advanced economies hold the bottom-left corner. Food takes roughly 5 to 22 percent of consumer spending in that group, on food outlays worth under about 13 percent of GDP.
- ▸Emerging markets spread across the whole middle of the chart. Their markers run from about 11 percent of consumer spending to above 40 percent, and the group overlaps the advanced cluster at one end and the low-income band at the other.
- ▸Low-income developing countries occupy the top-right. Every marker in that group sits above roughly 29 percent of consumer spending, and the highest of them approach 55 percent.
A household that already spends half its money on food has no cheaper category to move into, so a price rise comes out of everything else it buys. The IMF places Bangladesh in the low-income group at the upper right of this chart. Food and beverages carry the largest single weight in the Bangladesh CPI basket, which is the same fact seen from the other side.
Food inflation belongs in the credit process, not only in the macro commentary. A price move reaches disposable income before it reaches any borrower's file, and the thinnest-buffer books — retail, microfinance-linked exposure, small-ticket SME — feel it first. A risk team reading food prices only off the monthly CPI print is working from the slowest signal available.
Policy & Rates (Bangladesh Bank)
Front holds at policy; call money 9.48%, the 7-day a thin outlier.
FX Reserves
WATCH
- ◆Whether O/N and 14-day call hold ≤9.50% into month-end demand
- ◆The overdue reserves refresh — the last print predates the 30 July cut
- ◆Deposit-rate pass-through as July's bill-curve drop flows into term funding
RISK
- ▼Rate relief landing into a 33-year-low 4.98% private credit — the cut fails to transmit to lending
- ▼The 7-day's 11.95% dislocation spreading if a single lender's funding gap widens
- ▼A 0.34% real policy rate on the June read leaving a razor-thin carry cushion post-cut
Banking
Book frozen on Q1's 32.26% NPL; the credit engine stays demand-starved.
WATCH
- ◆Whether Q2 2026 statements finally land the court-stayed loan overhang on BSEC's quarterly clock
- ◆Any Q2 CAR disclosure superseding the 1.56% Q3 2025 read
- ◆Private credit at 4.98% — whether the print marks a floor or extends the slide
RISK
- ▼Private credit at a 33-year-low 4.98% — weak sheets cannot out-grow their NPL stock
- ▼Gas-driven RMG closures pushing fresh delinquency into the next NPL print
- ▼Court-stayed loan stock understating the printed 32.26% NPL ratio
The banking book opens frozen on last quarter's prints while fresh pressure arrives through the real economy. NPLs hold 32.26% on the Q1 2026 read; system CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio) is 1.56% on the Q3 2025 read, 844bp below the 10% floor — a cushion gone, not thin. The live signal is demand, not capital: private credit stuck at 4.98%, a 33-year low, so even solvent lenders face a shrinking book, while retail exits T-bills and the DSE fades on negative breadth — a domestic risk-off starving the loan side. Layer the gas crunch idling a fifth of garment capacity onto RMG exposure, and the next delinquency wave is a real-economy story, not a policy one. The 30 July cut is real but useless here: cheaper funding cannot repair a sheet with no borrowers. Dispersion stays the trade — own the private compounders that carry a lean quarter, fade the SCB (state-owned commercial bank) scrip that cannot.
FX & External
Taka steady at 123.82; every funding input is quietly cooling.
External Flow Balance
Trade gap held -$1.77bn — exports $4.03bn against $2.82bn July remittance — as USD/BDT steadied at 123.82 and Brent held above $80.
USD/BDT broke its 122.85 hold to 123.82 in late July; reserves $37.58bn on the 30 Jun read.
Treasury: gold's spike and Brent above $80 reverse the import-bill relief — watch the overdue reserve print as remittance and RMG cool.
WATCH
- ◆Whether 123.82 holds or the taka resumes its crawl as foreign financing thins
- ◆The overdue reserves refresh past the 30 Jun $37.58bn read
- ◆Whether Brent holds above the $80 FY27 line or the Hormuz bid fades
RISK
- ▼Gold's surge and Brent above $80 re-widening the import bill remittance must clear
- ▼A record $4.49bn external debt repayment bidding for the same FX the $1.77bn trade gap consumes
- ▼Overseas departures at a five-year low thinning the forward remittance that funds the peg
The peg's funding math still clears, but every input is cooling at once. USD/BDT sits at 123.82, steady since the late-July break off 122.85; reserves of $37.58bn on the 30 Jun read hold import cover near 6.48mo — adequate, but two prints overdue. Both offsetting legs are softening: July exports slipped 0.9% YoY as the gas crunch idles a fifth of garment capacity, and remittance logged a second month under $3bn at $2.82bn. The inflow still covers the $1.77bn trade gap by $1.05bn, but the margin has stopped growing — and a record $4.49bn external repayment bids for the same dollars. Today's gold spike to $4,403 and Brent back above the $80 FY27 line remove the sub-$80 import relief that briefly lightened the drain. Treasury: hold the constructive taka stance, but stop banking the free lunch — guard the buffer into the overdue reserve print.
DSE Markets
DSEX pinned ~5,894 on 6 Aug; weak breadth beneath a flat index.
DSEX Index
DSEX held ~5,894 on 6 Aug, capped below 5,900 — a 5,784-to-5,900 band; breadth negative 170/176 on Tk1,111cr turnover.
Ten sessions bracketed by a 5,784 low and a 5,900 high; the cap has not broken across the window.
Equity desk: a flat index masking negative breadth — stay selective until 5,900 breaks on volume.
WATCH
- ◆Whether the post-holiday reopen finally clears 5,900 or the cap holds again
- ◆Turnover follow-through — a slip under Tk1,000cr confirms fading conviction
- ◆Bank scrip as private credit prints a 33-year-low 4.98% and NPLs hold Q1's 32.26%
RISK
- ▼The late-session sell-off — Tk2,534cr of market cap shed — repricing float into the reopen
- ▼The gas-driven garment break repricing RMG and industrial earnings
- ▼A thin-conviction tape fading on negative breadth into the reopen
T-Bonds & T-Bills
Front holds near policy — 364d 9.54%; July's spike stays unwound.
BD Govt Yield Ladder
The front holds July's unwind — 364d 9.54%, 182d 9.53%, 91d 9.30% — while the 10y sits at 10.25%.
The 364d ran 10.09% for six prints after its July jump, then cut 55bp to 9.535%, held five prints since.
ALCO: price term funding to the auction, not the July spike — lock relief before deposit rates catch down.
WATCH
- ◆Whether the next auction holds the front near 9.50% or cuts further below policy
- ◆The retail exit from T-bills — whether institutional demand keeps cut-offs anchored
- ◆5s10s at 57bp — the slope repricing long-dated fixed-rate books
RISK
- ▼The front collapse signalling weak credit demand — 33-year-low 4.98% private growth — not just liquidity
- ▼Deposit and lending rates lagging the bill-curve drop, squeezing bank margins
- ▼Long-end supply into a thin FY27 auction calendar steepening 5s10s from 57bp
Macro & Inflation
Private credit stuck at a 33-year-low 4.98%; June non-food CPI firm at 9.61%.
CPI Trend
June point-to-point inflation held firm — non-food 9.61%, food 8.6% — while the 12m-avg sat at 8.6% on the older March print.
The 12m-avg is lowest since Mar 2023 (8.4% then) — a March read; June point-to-point is firming again.
MPC: with June non-food 9.61% and the August LPG hike not yet in the base, hold before easing.
WATCH
- ◆The next CPI print — first to carry the August LPG hike into the 9.61% June non-food line
- ◆Private credit at 4.98% — whether the print marks a floor or extends the slide
- ◆Import cover 6.48mo on the June read — whether the overdue reserve print holds it
RISK
- ▼June non-food inflation at 9.61% firming as the August LPG hike compounds the next cost-push print
- ▼Private credit at a 33-year-low 4.98% with M2 10.52% on the Feb read — liquidity present, demand absent
- ▼A 0.34% real policy rate on the June read leaving a razor-thin carry cushion post-cut
Remittance
July remittance held $2.82bn; a second month under $3bn.
Remittance Inflow
WATCH
- ◆Whether $2.82bn is a floor or the top of a slide after a second month under $3bn
- ◆Overseas departures at a five-year low — how fast the migration slowdown feeds monthly inflow
- ◆The record $4.49bn external repayment bidding for the same dollars the peg needs
RISK
- ▼Overseas job departures at a five-year low — a thinner remittance pipeline one to two years out
- ▼The line's $1.05bn cushion bidding against a record $4.49bn external repayment
- ▼Gold's spike and Brent above $80 re-widening the import bill this inflow must clear
Fiscal
NBR frozen at Tk3.61tn; onshore funds the FY27 gap ~55bp cheaper.
NBR Tax Revenue
Monthly NBR collection printed flat again, holding the YTD line at Tk3.61tn — no new receipt across the fourteen-print window.
Fourteen prints, all Tk3.61tn — the last new monthly figure predates the window.
Treasury: revenue frozen, but the FY27 gap funds cheaper — onshore clears at a 364d 9.54%, ~55bp below July's spike.
WATCH
- ◆The next monthly NBR print — the Tk3.61tn line has not moved all window
- ◆Whether the 364d stays near 9.54% into the FY27 issuance calendar
- ◆The retail-to-institution shift in T-bill demand as the funding base rotates
RISK
- ▼A thin revenue base carrying the FY27 gap as monthly NBR stays flat
- ▼Gas-driven factory closures denting VAT and income receipts into the next NBR print
- ▼The bill-curve relief reversing if issuance supply outruns the demand shortfall
Iran War & Oil
Brent holds $82.76, above the $80 FY27 line; premium lingers.
Brent Crude
Brent holds $82.76, WTI $77.44 — the Brent-WTI spread near $5.32 — crude up $1 on uncertainty over an end to the Iran war.
Brent sits $2.76 above the $80 FY27 line, versus a $10 premium a fortnight ago and sub-$80 last Thursday.
Treasury: the import bill stays above the FY27 assumption — watch the subsidy line and energy-importer credit into the gas crunch.
WATCH
- ◆Whether Brent holds above $80 or the Hormuz bid fades back under the FY27 line
- ◆The FY27 subsidy provision now that spot Brent sits above its $80 assumption
- ◆The August LPG hike feeding energy cost-push into the June 9.61% non-food line
RISK
- ▼A renewed Gulf escalation snapping Brent toward the $90 seen a fortnight ago and re-widening the import bill
- ▼A domestic gas-supply shortfall forcing costlier spot LNG as factories idle
- ▼The August LPG hike compounding the firm 9.61% June non-food CPI line
Oil is the day's live wire. Brent holds $82.76, up $1 on uncertainty over an end to the Iran war, and sits $2.76 above the $80 line the FY27 budget assumes — the sub-$80 relief of last week has already gone. Gold's spike to a fresh $4,403 peak on Strait of Hormuz risk says the safe-haven bid is not done; a renewed Gulf escalation could snap Brent back toward the $90 seen a fortnight ago. For Bangladesh the transmission is direct: a higher crude strip re-widens the import bill that remittance and a $37.58bn reserve stock — on the 30 Jun read, two prints overdue — must clear, and it lands on the FY27 subsidy provision just as the August LPG hike feeds the firm 9.61% June non-food CPI. Treasury: price energy-importer credit lines to a Brent strip above $80, not the brief dip below it — and watch H2 receivables on the next refi cycle.
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