Headlines
Bad-loan concentration and energy costs frame today's corporate news flow.
Food's Share of Spending Rises as Income Falls
An IMF chart, built on USDA data, plots food spending as a share of GDP against food's share of total consumer spending. Poorer economies sit further up and further right on both scales.
- ▸Advanced economies hold the bottom-left corner. Food takes roughly 5 to 22 percent of consumer spending in that group, on food outlays worth under about 13 percent of GDP.
- ▸Emerging markets spread across the whole middle of the chart. Their markers run from about 11 percent of consumer spending to above 40 percent, and the group overlaps the advanced cluster at one end and the low-income band at the other.
- ▸Low-income developing countries occupy the top-right. Every marker in that group sits above roughly 29 percent of consumer spending, and the highest of them approach 55 percent.
A household that already spends half its money on food has no cheaper category to move into, so a price rise comes out of everything else it buys. The IMF places Bangladesh in the low-income group at the upper right of this chart. Food and beverages carry the largest single weight in the Bangladesh CPI basket, which is the same fact seen from the other side.
Food inflation belongs in the credit process, not only in the macro commentary. A price move reaches disposable income before it reaches any borrower's file, and the thinnest-buffer books — retail, microfinance-linked exposure, small-ticket SME — feel it first. A risk team reading food prices only off the monthly CPI print is working from the slowest signal available.
Policy & Rates (Bangladesh Bank)
Corridor steady since the July cut; call money near the repo.
FX Reserves
Gross reserves climbed to $36.42bn by the Jul 2026 print from $31.09bn in Nov 2025, easing back off a $37.58bn peak.
Up more than $5bn since the Nov 2025 series low of $31.09bn, below the $37.58bn high.
Treasury: import cover behind the easing corridor rests on this Jul print; watch the next monthly refresh for confirmation.
WATCH
- ◆overnight call money holding near the 9.5% repo through September
- ◆next reserves print to refresh the $36.42bn Jul read
- ◆SDF/SLF corridor width at the next MPS
RISK
- ▼call money spiking toward the 11.0% SLF ceiling on a liquidity squeeze
- ▼a reserves refresh landing below the current $36.42bn Jul read
Banking
Asset quality is the system's binding constraint, not funding.
Overnight Money Market
Overnight benchmarks eased steadily — BOFR (Bangladesh Overnight Financing Rate) down to 9.26% by the 3 Sep print from 10.42% in mid-April.
Down more than a full point since the 15 Apr series start (10.42% then), holding near the floor.
Treasury: funding costs have compressed toward the 9.5% repo; the bind on the book is asset quality, not the cost of overnight cash.
WATCH
- ◆Q3 2026 NPL print for direction off the 32.78% Q2 read
- ◆state-bank recapitalisation or provisioning moves
- ◆a refreshed CAR disclosure to replace the Q3 2025 read
RISK
- ▼provisioning shortfalls at state banks eroding the thin capital base
- ▼bad-loan stock migrating from state to private books
- ▼further CAR slippage below the Q3 2025 1.56% read
The credit story splits in two. Funding is not the problem — the policy rate has sat at 9.5% since the 30 Jul cut, overnight call money is 9.2%, and the interbank benchmarks have eased through the summer, so liquidity is not squeezing the system. The strain is on the asset side: a 32.78% NPL ratio in the Q2 2026 print puts close to a third of loans non-performing, and the stock is lodged in a small set of state banks now reported to hold more than BDT 2.0tn of stuck cases. Against that book, the latest capital read — a 1.56% CAR for Q3 2025 — leaves little absorption capacity, though that figure is several quarters old. For the desk, that argues for defensive state-bank counterparty lines and close watch on provisioning, since the risk is credit migration and capital erosion, not a funding event.
FX & External
Spot firm; the external read leans on July and June data.
External Flow Balance
Imports hit a series-high $7.51bn in the Jun 2026 print, up from $4.39bn a year earlier, while exports rose to $4.20bn — the trade gap widening.
Exports up from $3.35bn a year ago (Jun 2025), but imports outran them to the widest gap in the series.
Treasury: the goods deficit is near -$3.3bn/month on the June read; watch reserves and remittance to fund the gap.
WATCH
- ◆next reserves print to refresh the $36.42bn Jul read
- ◆the July export figure against the $4.20bn June base
- ◆USD/BDT for any drift off the 122.80 handle
RISK
- ▼a reserves refresh landing below the $36.42bn Jul read
- ▼the trade gap widening beyond -$3.31bn with imports at $7.5bn/month
- ▼remittance softening and pressuring the spot
DSE Markets
Index flat, breadth soft, turnover thin at BDT 721 crore.
DSEX Index
DSEX closed at 5,662 on the 3 Sep print, essentially flat over twelve months, inside a 4,703–5,926 band.
Barely changed from 5,636 a year ago (Sep 2025), after ranging as low as 4,703 in between.
Equity desk: no trend to trade; thin BDT 721 crore turnover argues for range tactics until breadth turns.
WATCH
- ◆turnover recovering above BDT 1,000 crore for conviction
- ◆breadth flipping positive after the 127/226 split
- ◆DSEX testing the 5,926 range top
RISK
- ▼thin turnover amplifying downside on any sell program
- ▼breadth deteriorating further from the 127/226 split
- ▼the index breaking the 4,703 range floor
T-Bonds & T-Bills
Auction yields easing after the July cut; the curve has flattened lower.
BD Govt Yield Ladder
The 91-day cut-off fell to 8.73% by the Sep 2026 print from 9.79% in July, with the 10-year down to 9.23% from 10.24%.
Down more than a full point at the front since the July series start (9.79% then), the whole curve lower.
Treasury: cheaper primary funding for the sovereign; expect ALCO to reprice FDR and lending books as the curve resets lower.
WATCH
- ◆the next auction for follow-through below the 8.73% 91-day cut-off
- ◆a secondary 10-year refresh off the 9.23% 21 Aug read
- ◆bid-cover at upcoming auctions as yields fall
RISK
- ▼issuance pressure repricing the curve higher if bank borrowing rises
- ▼duration marks if the front-end easing reverses
- ▼thin secondary liquidity on the long end
Macro & Inflation
Inflation easing but sticky; credit demand soft, money growth the fastest since 2021.
CPI Trend
The 12-month average CPI eased to 8.66% by the Jul 2026 print from 9.77% a year earlier, near the low of its 24-point range.
Down from 9.77% in Jul 2025, the 12m-avg has fallen toward its 8.59% series trough.
Treasury: disinflation is real but slow; with the real policy rate near 1.2%, expect the MPC to hold rather than cut further.
WATCH
- ◆the August CPI print for continuation of the disinflation off 8.66%
- ◆private credit growth breaking above the weak 4.98% August read
- ◆M2 momentum after the 11.11% Jun reading, its highest since 2021
RISK
- ▼private credit stuck near 5% starving investment
- ▼M2 at 11%-plus feeding inflation if it rotates into demand
- ▼a firmer REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) on the Mar 2026 print trimming export competitiveness
The macro read frames the credit cycle from the demand side. Private credit grew just 4.98% year-on-year on the August print — weak against a far faster nominal economy — even as M2 rose 11.11% for Jun 2026, the highest since Sep 2021 (11.2% then). Money is expanding faster than credit reaches private borrowers; with yields down since the July cut, banks look to be favouring government paper over lending into a book already heavy with bad loans. Disinflation is underway — the 12-month average CPI eased to 8.66% in the Jul 2026 print — but the real policy rate near 1.2% leaves limited room to cut. The REER at 102.78 on the Mar 2026 print is the highest since Nov 2025 (103.55 then), a real appreciation that trims export competitiveness. The signal is a stalled credit impulse: expect the MPC to hold and lending appetite to stay cautious.
Remittance
Remittance holding near $2.8bn, up double digits on last August.
Remittance Inflow
Monthly remittance was $2.86bn in the Jul 2026 print, up from $2.42bn a year earlier, within a $2.42–3.76bn range.
Up from the $2.42bn series low a year ago (Aug 2025), off a $3.76bn peak.
Treasury: a firm inflow cushions the external account and supports the taka near 122.80; watch the August final for confirmation.
WATCH
- ◆the final August figure confirming the $2.82bn provisional flash
- ◆remittance holding above the $2.42bn year-ago pace
- ◆the channel spread between formal and informal flows
RISK
- ▼the provisional $2.82bn revised lower on the final print
- ▼a seasonal fade after August pulling inflows toward the $2.42bn floor
- ▼informal-channel leakage if the spot weakens
Fiscal
Revenue at BDT 3.61tn; government bank borrowing BDT 0.94tn on June data.
NBR Tax Revenue
Monthly NBR revenue reached BDT 28,027 crore in the Oct 2025 print, up from BDT 26,555 crore a year earlier.
Up about 6% on the Oct 2024 reading (BDT 26,555 crore then), within a BDT 21,478–52,720 crore range.
Fiscal: revenue momentum modest; a soft collection line raises the odds of heavier bank borrowing to fund the deficit.
WATCH
- ◆an updated NBR monthly print to move the BDT 3.61tn YTD line
- ◆a refreshed government bank-borrowing figure off the BDT 0.94tn June read
- ◆T-bill and bond issuance as a proxy for financing need
RISK
- ▼a revenue shortfall widening the deficit and lifting bank borrowing
- ▼crowding out of private credit if government issuance rises
- ▼financing need surfacing in higher auction yields
Iran War & Oil
Brent near $96 keeps the energy import bill elevated into H2.
Brent Crude
Brent was $96.22 as of the 4 Sep print, up from $93.09 in early June, after ranging between $71 and $100.
Up from $93.09 at the 7 Jun series start, and near the $100.38 three-month high.
Risk: energy-importer credit lines face a higher bill; watch H2 receivables at fuel-intensive exporters on the next refi cycle.
WATCH
- ◆Brent holding above $95 into the next refi cycle
- ◆the spread between the $71 floor and $100 ceiling of the three-month range
- ◆energy-cost pass-through to apparel margins
RISK
- ▼a Brent break above the $100 three-month high lifting the import bill
- ▼fuel-intensive exporters' margins compressing further
- ▼a wider trade gap from a higher energy bill
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