Headlines
Gas supply restored and a ratings outlook lift steady the day's tone.
Food's Share of Spending Rises as Income Falls
An IMF chart, built on USDA data, plots food spending as a share of GDP against food's share of total consumer spending. Poorer economies sit further up and further right on both scales.
- ▸Advanced economies hold the bottom-left corner. Food takes roughly 5 to 22 percent of consumer spending in that group, on food outlays worth under about 13 percent of GDP.
- ▸Emerging markets spread across the whole middle of the chart. Their markers run from about 11 percent of consumer spending to above 40 percent, and the group overlaps the advanced cluster at one end and the low-income band at the other.
- ▸Low-income developing countries occupy the top-right. Every marker in that group sits above roughly 29 percent of consumer spending, and the highest of them approach 55 percent.
A household that already spends half its money on food has no cheaper category to move into, so a price rise comes out of everything else it buys. The IMF places Bangladesh in the low-income group at the upper right of this chart. Food and beverages carry the largest single weight in the Bangladesh CPI basket, which is the same fact seen from the other side.
Food inflation belongs in the credit process, not only in the macro commentary. A price move reaches disposable income before it reaches any borrower's file, and the thinnest-buffer books — retail, microfinance-linked exposure, small-ticket SME — feel it first. A risk team reading food prices only off the monthly CPI print is working from the slowest signal available.
Policy & Rates (Bangladesh Bank)
Corridor unchanged; overnight liquidity comfortable with call money near the floor.
FX Reserves
Gross reserves at 36.42bn USD on the Jul 2026 print, up from 31.09bn in Nov 2025 but off the 37.58bn peak of the 13-point window.
Net reserves (BPM6) climbed to 31.60bn USD over the same window from 26.40bn in Nov 2025.
Treasury: the rebuild supports cover, but the read is seven weeks stale — watch the next monthly print before sizing FX exposure.
WATCH
- ◆Next reserves refresh after the Jul 2026 print
- ◆Call money drift toward the 7.50% SDF floor
- ◆Any liquidity mop-up if overnight rates keep easing
RISK
- ▼Liquidity comfort masking thin external cover on a stale reserves read
- ▼Deposit-rate compression if overnight rates keep sliding
Banking
NPLs at 32.78% on the Q2 print; capital read still stale at Q3 2025.
Overnight Money Market
DOMMR eased to 8.73% by the 15 Sep print from 10.09% in mid-April; BOFR tracked it lower to 8.76%.
Both overnight rates sit near the 100-point window low (DOMMR floor 8.67%) as interbank liquidity loosened through the summer.
Treasury: cheaper overnight funding lowers marginal cost but signals ample liquidity — expect deposit rates to drift lower into Q4.
WATCH
- ◆Q3 2025 CAR refresh to reprice the capital buffer
- ◆Overnight DOMMR/BOFR drift as a funding-cost signal
- ◆State-bank NPL concentration in the next quarterly print
RISK
- ▼Provisioning shortfall against a 32.78% NPL stock
- ▼Capital-adequacy read nearly a year stale (Q3 2025)
- ▼Impaired-asset concentration in state banks
The banking book runs two clocks at different speeds. Asset quality is current enough to price: NPLs were 32.78% on the Q2 2026 print, a level that implies heavy provisioning and thin residual capital, and the stock sits mostly with state-owned commercial banks, concentrating the system's tail risk rather than spreading it. Capital is the blind spot — aggregate CAR was 1.56% on the Q3 2025 print, close to a year old, so the buffer behind that impaired book cannot be verified from current data. Meanwhile funding is cheap and easing: DOMMR (Dhaka Overnight Money Market Rate) fell to 8.73% by the 15 Sep reading from above 10% in mid-April, and BOFR (Bangladesh Overnight Financing Rate) tracked it to 8.76%. The desk reads a system that funds itself comfortably day to day while its solvency picture stays unconfirmed — reason to hold counterparty limits tight on the weaker state names until the capital print refreshes.
FX & External
Taka firm near 123.35; reserves and trade data still on summer prints.
External Flow Balance
Exports reached 4.20bn USD by the Jun 2026 print, up from 3.35bn a year earlier, while imports ran to 7.51bn USD, a high for the 24-point series.
Imports at the window high of 7.51bn USD against a 4.39bn low a year earlier widens the monthly trade gap.
Treasury: export gains cushion FX inflows, but a record import bill keeps the current-account drain live — watch H1 FY27 remittance to fill it.
WATCH
- ◆Next monthly reserves print after Jul 2026
- ◆July export follow-through on the June momentum
- ◆Import bill trend after the June peak
RISK
- ▼Import cover judged on a stale Jul 2026 reserves figure
- ▼Trade gap widening if the import bill holds near 7.5bn USD
- ▼Gold at 4,344 USD/oz signalling global risk-off
DSE Markets
Broad melt-up on light volume; conviction unproven until turnover confirms.
DSEX Index
DSEX at 5,472.46 as of the 15 Sep print, essentially flat over 12 months (5,509.61 a year ago) but well up from the 4,702.69 window low.
Still about 7.7% below the 5,926.28 peak in the 242-point window — a recovery inside range, not a new high.
Equity/treasury: range-bound tape favours tactical rotation over directional beta until turnover confirms a breakout above the 5,926 high.
WATCH
- ◆Turnover recovery above Tk 500cr to confirm conviction
- ◆DSEX hold above the 5,379 prior-session low
- ◆Breadth persistence after the 336:21 session
RISK
- ▼Thin-volume rally reversing on the next distribution day
- ▼Breadth skew unwinding without turnover support
- ▼Index still below the 5,660 level printed earlier in the run
The tape reads as a rotation more than a demand surge. DSEX rose 1.74% to 5,472.46 on 15 Sep with unusually wide breadth — 336 advancers to 21 decliners — yet turnover was light at Tk 505cr, which is the tell. A rally this broad on volume this thin points to a re-rating of the whole board rather than concentrated buying, and the likeliest engine is rates: the 91-day T-Bill cut off at 8.34% on 14 Sep from 9.79% at the July auction, and the government curve has shifted down across tenors. As the risk-free rate falls, the relative case for equities improves without any earnings news — which is what a low-volume, broad advance looks like. The desk reads this as constructive but unconfirmed: position for the rate-sensitivity beta, keep sizing modest until turnover backs the move, since a melt-up volume never joins tends to give ground on the first distribution day.
T-Bonds & T-Bills
Bills repriced sharply lower; curve stays upward-sloping to the 10-year.
BD Govt Yield Ladder
364-day T-Bill yield fell to 8.42% by the Sep 2026 print from 10.09% in Jul 2026; the 91-day dropped to 8.34% from 9.79%.
Every T-Bill tenor sits at its low in the 3-point monthly series, down roughly 150 to 170bp since the Jul 2026 reading.
Treasury: falling cut-offs pull reinvestment yields down — expect deposit and lending rates to follow into Q4, easing carry on the bill book.
WATCH
- ◆Next 10y print to refresh the 21 Aug read
- ◆Whether the belly follows bills lower at coming auctions
- ◆Auction bid-cover as yields fall
RISK
- ▼Reinvestment-yield compression for bank bond books
- ▼Long-end read stale at 21 Aug
- ▼Duration extension risk if the front keeps flattening
The government curve is doing two things at once. At the front, cut-offs fell roughly 25 to 31bp in a single cycle — 91-day to 8.34%, 182-day to 8.38%, 364-day to 8.42% on 14 Sep — extending a slide that took the 91-day from 9.79% at the July auction. At the long end the move is milder and older: the 10-year was 9.23% on the 21 Aug print, leaving the bill-to-bond spread near 90bp. A fast-easing front against a stickier long end is the signature of a market pricing near-term policy comfort while keeping a term premium on duration. For bank books the read is directional: the reinvestment yield on maturing bills is falling quarter-point by quarter-point, squeezing carry on the liquid book, while the mark on longer holdings improves as the curve drifts down. The desk would add duration selectively in the belly, where the roll is steepest, funded short while overnight rates sit near 8.7%.
Macro & Inflation
CPI easing grudgingly; money growth firm as private credit stays soft.
CPI Trend
CPI 12-month average eased to 8.66% on the Jul 2026 print, down from a 10.34% peak in the 24-point series and from 9.95% at the Aug 2024 start.
The 12-month average has fallen to 8.66%, near the 8.59% series low, from 9.95% at the Aug 2024 start.
Treasury: with the real policy rate near 1.18%, further disinflation widens the real cushion — watch the August CPI before repricing MPC odds.
WATCH
- ◆August CPI print for the disinflation trajectory
- ◆Private credit pickup to absorb the 11.11% M2 growth
- ◆REER refresh after the stale Mar 2026 read
RISK
- ▼Sticky 9.28% non-food inflation capping the real rate
- ▼M2 at 11.11% outrunning 4.98% credit — latent inflation
- ▼Import cover of 4.85mo on a Jun 2026 read
Remittance
Remittance holding near $2.97bn on the August flash, a steady inflow.
Remittance Inflow
Monthly remittance was 2,858.68mn USD in the Jul 2026 print, up from 2,421.9mn a year earlier, within a 12-month range topping at 3,755.1mn.
Inflows have held above the 2,421.9mn low set a year ago (Aug 2025), off the 3,755.1mn window peak.
Treasury: remittance running near 2.9bn USD a month cushions the trade gap — a dependable offset to the import bill as long as it holds.
WATCH
- ◆Final Aug remittance versus the 2,970mn flash
- ◆September inflow to confirm the higher trend
- ◆FX-rate impact on formal-channel flows
RISK
- ▼Flash figure revised down at the final print
- ▼Informal-channel diversion if the taka weakens
- ▼Seasonal fade after the summer inflow
Fiscal
Revenue creeping up; government bank-borrowing figure still on the June print.
NBR Tax Revenue
Monthly NBR revenue was BDT 28,027cr in the Oct 2025 print, up from BDT 26,555cr a year earlier and BDT 22,005cr at the series start.
The 28-point monthly series ranges from a BDT 21,478cr low to a BDT 52,720cr collection-month peak.
Fiscal: monthly receipts near BDT 28,000cr keep the revenue line grinding up — watch whether the YTD BDT 4.15tn pace holds into H2 FY27.
WATCH
- ◆Next govt borrowing print after Jun 2026
- ◆NBR monthly run-rate versus the FY27 target
- ◆Whether falling T-Bill yields cut debt-service cost
RISK
- ▼Revenue undershoot forcing heavier bank borrowing
- ▼Fiscal-monetary crowding if borrowing accelerates
- ▼Borrowing data lag masking current deficit financing
Iran War & Oil
Crude elevated near $108; fuel-import costs feed the external drain.
Brent Crude
Brent stood at 108.35 USD/bbl as of the 15 Sep print, up from 79.07 in mid-June and at the top of the 81-point window.
Crude has climbed from a 71.18 USD/bbl low to its window high over roughly three months of war-risk premium.
Risk/treasury: a near-$30 rise since June lifts the import bill — watch energy-importer credit lines and H2 receivables as the fuel bill flows through.
WATCH
- ◆Brent direction after the $108 handle
- ◆Fuel-oil import volumes after the 695,000-tonne clearance
- ◆Pass-through to domestic fuel prices
RISK
- ▼Higher oil widening the trade gap and pressuring reserves
- ▼Energy-import cost strain on the budget
- ▼Imported inflation via fuel if crude holds above $100
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