Headlines
Domestic policy and energy stories dominate; oil sits behind the day's frame.
Food's Share of Spending Rises as Income Falls
An IMF chart, built on USDA data, plots food spending as a share of GDP against food's share of total consumer spending. Poorer economies sit further up and further right on both scales.
- ▸Advanced economies hold the bottom-left corner. Food takes roughly 5 to 22 percent of consumer spending in that group, on food outlays worth under about 13 percent of GDP.
- ▸Emerging markets spread across the whole middle of the chart. Their markers run from about 11 percent of consumer spending to above 40 percent, and the group overlaps the advanced cluster at one end and the low-income band at the other.
- ▸Low-income developing countries occupy the top-right. Every marker in that group sits above roughly 29 percent of consumer spending, and the highest of them approach 55 percent.
A household that already spends half its money on food has no cheaper category to move into, so a price rise comes out of everything else it buys. The IMF places Bangladesh in the low-income group at the upper right of this chart. Food and beverages carry the largest single weight in the Bangladesh CPI basket, which is the same fact seen from the other side.
Food inflation belongs in the credit process, not only in the macro commentary. A price move reaches disposable income before it reaches any borrower's file, and the thinnest-buffer books — retail, microfinance-linked exposure, small-ticket SME — feel it first. A risk team reading food prices only off the monthly CPI print is working from the slowest signal available.
Policy & Rates (Bangladesh Bank)
Corridor steady at 9.5%; call money at 8.81% signals ample liquidity.
FX Reserves
Gross reserves rose to $37.35bn as of the Aug 2026 print, up from $33.19bn in Dec 2025, near the series high of $37.58bn.
The 13-month series ranges $33.18bn to $37.58bn; the Aug print sits near the top.
Treasury: the reserve build cushions import cover, but oil near $100 threatens the next monthly draw — watch the September reserve print.
WATCH
- ◆Call money drift toward the 7.5% SDF floor
- ◆Timing of the next MPS for corridor guidance
RISK
- ▼Excess liquidity compressing deposit rates
- ▼Import cover if oil stays near $100
Banking
NPLs at 32.78% on the Q2 read; capital data a year stale.
Overnight Money Market
DOMMR fell to 8.71% as of the 17 Sep read, down from 10.09% in mid-April; BOFR (Bangladesh Overnight Financing Rate) sits alongside at 8.69%.
The 102-day series ranges 8.67% to 10.65%; rates now sit near the floor, well below where they held in April.
Treasury: cheaper overnight funding eases carry, but the NPL stock means credit spreads, not funding cost, drive weaker-bank pricing.
WATCH
- ◆Q3 2026 NPL disclosure for direction off 32.78%
- ◆A fresh CAR print to confirm the capital cushion
RISK
- ▼Concentration of NPLs in state-owned banks
- ▼Provisioning shortfall eroding the capital base
The Q2 2026 NPL ratio of 32.78% describes a system where close to a third of loans are not performing, and that stock is not evenly spread — it concentrates in a small number of state-owned commercial banks. That turns a system-wide headline into a counterparty problem for the desk: the risk is not that every bank is stressed but that a few are, and the interbank market must price which. Compounding the read, the latest CAR print dates to Q3 2025 at 1.56%, now a full year old, so the capital standing behind today's bad-loan stock cannot be confirmed from current data. Money-market rates have eased in parallel — DOMMR (Dhaka Overnight Money Market Rate) at 8.71% on the 17 Sep read, down from above 10% in April — which cuts funding cost but does nothing for loan quality. Hold tight counterparty lines on the weaker names until the next disclosure.
FX & External
Peg steady at 122.91; external buffers rest on June trade data.
External Flow Balance
Imports reached a series-high $7.51bn in the Jun 2026 print; exports were $4.20bn, up from $3.35bn a year earlier.
Imports at the top of the 24-month series ($4.39bn–$7.51bn); the gap has widened since mid-2025.
Treasury: with oil near $100, expect the import leg to stay elevated; watch the current account and reserve draw into Q4.
WATCH
- ◆The September reserve print for the first post-oil-move reading
- ◆The USD/BDT band under a wider trade gap
RISK
- ▼Higher oil widening the trade gap through H2
- ▼Reserve draw if the current account deteriorates
The FX picture splits into what is current and what is not. The taka is holding at USD/BDT 122.91 and reserves read $37.35bn on the August print, both reassuring on their face. But the trade and export figures that would test that comfort are from June — a $3.31bn monthly gap on $4.20bn of exports against a $7.51bn import bill. The relevant change since then sits in the oil section: Brent has run from around $80 in late June to $98.63/bbl, and Bangladesh imports its fuel. That feeds straight into an import line the June data cannot yet show, so the trade gap is very likely wider now than the last print records. Import cover of about 5.0 months rests on the June bill, lighter than the one now landing. Treat the June external accounts as a floor, and watch the September reserve and trade prints for the first read on the oil pass-through.
DSE Markets
Index up 0.69% to 5,532; advancers led decliners 262 to 80.
DSEX Index
DSEX at 5,532 as of the 17 Sep print, up 2.8% from 5,382 a year earlier, mid-way in the 4,703–5,926 twelve-month band.
Off the 4,703 low of the past year and 6.7% below the 5,926 high.
Equity desk: a 12-month round-trip near flat; watch turnover for whether the recent bid carries real conviction.
WATCH
- ◆Turnover holding above Tk650cr to confirm the bid
- ◆The 5,926 year-high as the upside marker
RISK
- ▼Thin turnover reversing the advance
- ▼Rate-cut optimism fading if inflation data disappoints
T-Bonds & T-Bills
T-bill cut-offs eased to ~8.4% on 14 Sep; the curve flattened lower.
BD Govt Yield Ladder
The 10y yield fell to 8.54% as of the Sep 2026 print from 10.24% in Jul 2026 — a 170bp slide echoed across the curve.
The 91d–20y complex has dropped roughly 130–170bp since the Jul 2026 print.
Treasury: mark existing bond books up; ALCO should watch reinvestment risk as cut-offs approach the 7.5% SDF floor.
WATCH
- ◆The next weekly bond print for confirmation of the 8.5% area
- ◆Auction demand as cut-offs approach the policy floor
RISK
- ▼Yields undershooting if liquidity stays flush
- ▼Duration risk if oil revives inflation and reverses the rally
Macro & Inflation
12-month CPI eased to 8.66% on the Aug read; real rate just 1.24%.
CPI Trend
12m-average CPI eased to 8.66% as of the Jul 2026 print, down from 9.77% a year earlier and a 10.34% peak in the series.
Lowest since May 2026 (8.6% then); the disinflation trend is intact but shallow.
Treasury: a real policy rate near +1.24% gives the MPC room, but sticky non-food CPI argues for a hold at the next MPS.
WATCH
- ◆The August P-to-P CPI for whether disinflation holds
- ◆Private credit turning up from 4.98%
RISK
- ▼Oil near $100 reviving imported inflation
- ▼Sticky non-food CPI at 9.28% capping rate cuts
Remittance
Remittance at $2.97bn on the provisional Aug flash; steady external support.
Remittance Inflow
Monthly remittance was $2.86bn as of the Jul 2026 print, up from $2.42bn a year earlier, within a $2.42bn–$3.76bn twelve-month range.
Inflows have risen from the $2.42bn low a year ago toward the $3.76bn series high.
Treasury: remittance is the most reliable inflow cushioning reserves as the oil-driven import bill rises into H2.
WATCH
- ◆The final August remittance revision
- ◆Whether inflows hold above $2.9bn into Q4
RISK
- ▼Provisional flash subject to downward revision
- ▼Informal-channel leakage if the kerb spread widens
Fiscal
NBR at Tk4.15tn; the government leans harder on banks for financing.
NBR Tax Revenue
Monthly NBR revenue was Tk28,027cr as of the Oct 2025 print, up from Tk26,555cr a year earlier, within a Tk21,478cr–Tk52,720cr range.
The Oct 2025 print sits mid-range; monthly collections swing widely across the 28-month series.
Fiscal: revenue growth is modest against a widening financing need, which keeps government bank borrowing on an upward path.
WATCH
- ◆Fresh bank-borrowing data past the June print
- ◆NBR monthly collection versus the FY target
RISK
- ▼Crowding out private credit, last 4.98% YoY on the Aug print
- ▼Deficit financing pressure on deposit rates
Iran War & Oil
Brent at $98.63, up from $80 since June; import bill pressure builds.
Brent Crude
Brent climbed to $98.63/bbl as of the 18 Sep print from $80.59 in late June, approaching the $108.35 high of the window.
The barrel has ranged $71.18 to $108.35 since 21 Jun; it now sits in the upper half.
Treasury: budget the import bill on roughly $95–100 crude; expect a wider H2 trade gap and watch the September reserve draw.
WATCH
- ◆Whether Brent breaks and holds $100
- ◆The September import bill for the first pass-through
RISK
- ▼Sustained $100 oil widening the trade gap
- ▼Fuel subsidy and power-sector cost pressure
Oil is the day's macro variable because it is the one channel where a global move lands directly on Bangladesh's external accounts. Brent at $98.63/bbl is up about 22% from the $80.59 low in late June, and the country imports essentially all of its fuel, so the pass-through is mechanical: a higher barrel widens the import bill, that widens the trade gap, and a wider gap draws on reserves that read $37.35bn on the August print. The June trade data — a $3.31bn monthly gap — predates most of this move and so understates the pressure now building. The second-order risk sits in fuel and power costs, where higher landed crude feeds subsidy bills and eventually non-food inflation, already sticky at 9.28% on the July read. The desk stays defensive: hold dollar receivables long and keep energy-importer credit lines under review for H2 refinancing stress.
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