Headlines
New pay scale dominates; oil above $100 sets the macro backdrop.
Food's Share of Spending Rises as Income Falls
An IMF chart, built on USDA data, plots food spending as a share of GDP against food's share of total consumer spending. Poorer economies sit further up and further right on both scales.
- ▸Advanced economies hold the bottom-left corner. Food takes roughly 5 to 22 percent of consumer spending in that group, on food outlays worth under about 13 percent of GDP.
- ▸Emerging markets spread across the whole middle of the chart. Their markers run from about 11 percent of consumer spending to above 40 percent, and the group overlaps the advanced cluster at one end and the low-income band at the other.
- ▸Low-income developing countries occupy the top-right. Every marker in that group sits above roughly 29 percent of consumer spending, and the highest of them approach 55 percent.
A household that already spends half its money on food has no cheaper category to move into, so a price rise comes out of everything else it buys. The IMF places Bangladesh in the low-income group at the upper right of this chart. Food and beverages carry the largest single weight in the Bangladesh CPI basket, which is the same fact seen from the other side.
Food inflation belongs in the credit process, not only in the macro commentary. A price move reaches disposable income before it reaches any borrower's file, and the thinnest-buffer books — retail, microfinance-linked exposure, small-ticket SME — feel it first. A risk team reading food prices only off the monthly CPI print is working from the slowest signal available.
Policy & Rates (Bangladesh Bank)
Corridor steady; call money mid-band, reserves building toward $37.5bn.
FX Reserves
Gross reserves climbed to $37.35bn by the Aug 2026 print from $33.19bn in Dec 2025, a steady nine-month build.
Up roughly $4bn since the Dec 2025 start of the series; the window low was $33.18bn.
Treasury: the reserve cushion supports a rate hold, but an oil-driven import bill is the swing factor to watch.
WATCH
- ◆Next MPC guidance on the 9.5% repo
- ◆Call money drift toward the 11% SLF ceiling on any liquidity tightening
- ◆Reserve build sustaining above $37bn
RISK
- ▼Liquidity easing too far ahead of the next inflation print
- ▼Reserve gains reversing if the oil bill climbs
Banking
NPLs elevated at 32.78%; the capital read is a year old.
Overnight Money Market
DOMMR eased to 8.71% by the 17 Sep 2026 print from 10.09% in mid-Apr, near its lowest in the plotted window.
Series low is 8.67%; overnight funding has fallen roughly 140bp since mid-April 2026.
Treasury: cheaper overnight funding lifts near-term margins but offers no relief to the impaired loan book.
WATCH
- ◆Q3 2026 NPL disclosure for direction off the 32.78% print
- ◆Any refreshed CAR release to replace the Q3 2025 read
- ◆DOMMR drift as liquidity stays easy
RISK
- ▼Provisioning shortfall against a 32.78% NPL stock
- ▼Capital adequacy judged on stale Q3 2025 data
- ▼Rate-cut-driven margin compression on bank books
Two forces are pulling bank balance sheets in opposite directions. On the asset side, the NPL ratio at 32.78% in the Q2 2026 print marks a stock of bad loans large enough to dominate any read of system health, and the capital figure meant to cushion it — CAR at 1.56% — has not been republished since Q3 2025, so the pairing that matters most for solvency rests on data of two different vintages. On the funding side, the picture is easier: overnight money has fallen to 8.71% on the 17 Sep DOMMR print from above 10% in mid-April, and the wider rate structure has repriced down with it. Cheaper funding supports net interest margins in the near term, but it does nothing for the impaired book. The desk should treat bank credit selectively — funding relief is real and current, capital comfort is neither.
FX & External
Taka firm at 122.91; the June trade gap is still $3.31bn wide.
External Flow Balance
Imports reached $7.51bn in the Jun 2026 print, a series high, against exports of $4.20bn — the monthly trade gap near $3.3bn.
Imports up from $4.39bn a year earlier (Jun 2025); exports up from $3.35bn.
Treasury: import momentum plus Brent above $100 pressures reserve cover; watch the next current-account read.
WATCH
- ◆Jul–Aug export prints for momentum off the $4.20bn Jun read
- ◆Reserve cover as the oil bill climbs
- ◆Any USD/BDT drift beyond 123
RISK
- ▼Oil-driven import bill re-widening the $3.31bn Jun gap
- ▼Reserve drawdown if remittance softens
- ▼Stale trade data masking a turn in the current account
The taka's stability is the visible half of the external picture; the pressure sits underneath it. On the Jun print, imports of $7.51bn against exports of $4.20bn left a monthly trade gap of $3.31bn, and that arithmetic is about to get harder — Brent above $103 feeds straight into the energy line of the import bill on the next cycle. Reserves at $37.35bn in the Aug print and cover near five months on the Jun basis give the peg a buffer, but it is a buffer that oil is now spending. Exports at $4.20bn in Jun ran ahead of $3.35bn a year earlier, and remittance came in near $2.97bn on the Aug flash, so the inflow side is not the worry. The desk should watch the import line rather than the headline rate: USD/BDT at 122.91 can look calm while the cover ratio quietly compresses.
DSE Markets
Index up a third session; 262 advancers to 80 decliners.
DSEX Index
DSEX at 5,532 as of the 17 Sep 2026 print, up from 5,382 a year earlier and off the 5,926 window high.
Range over the year ran 4,703 to 5,926; the index sits in the upper half.
Watch: a break above the 5,900 area would confirm trend; below 5,400 signals the bounce fading.
WATCH
- ◆Turnover sustaining above Tk 650cr to validate the bounce
- ◆DSEX resistance near the 5,900 window high
- ◆Breadth holding as the index climbs
RISK
- ▼Thin turnover stalling the advance
- ▼Rate-cut-driven flows reversing if funding tightens
- ▼Index rolling over from the recent 5,532 level
T-Bonds & T-Bills
T-bill cut-offs fell to the low-8s; the long end followed.
BD Govt Yield Ladder
The 364d T-Bill cut-off fell to 8.42% in the Sep 2026 print from 10.09% in Jul, with the whole curve repricing down.
Down about 170bp since the Jul 2026 print; the 10y monthly fell from 10.24% to 8.54%.
Treasury: cheaper government funding, but watch duration — a Brent-led inflation turn would reprice the long end fast.
WATCH
- ◆Next auction cut-offs for confirmation below 8.4%
- ◆10y drift off the 8.54% 16 Sep print
- ◆Whether easy liquidity keeps compressing the curve
RISK
- ▼Duration risk if an oil-driven inflation impulse forces a rate turn
- ▼ALM (Asset-Liability Management) mismatch on FRA (Forward Rate Agreement)-tied long loans repricing
- ▼Curve steepening if issuance rises to fund the deficit
Macro & Inflation
12m CPI eased to 8.66%; credit growth stuck near 5%.
CPI Trend
The 12-month average CPI eased to 8.66% by the Jul 2026 print, down from 9.95% in Aug 2024, a steady two-year glide lower.
Lowest since May 2026 (8.6% then); the series peaked at 10.34% within the window.
Treasury: disinflation supports the easing cycle, but Brent above $100 is the upside risk to the next print.
WATCH
- ◆Sep CPI print for confirmation of the easing off 8.66%
- ◆Private credit turning up from the 4.98% Aug read
- ◆Real policy rate holding positive as inflation falls
RISK
- ▼Brent above $100 reversing the inflation glide
- ▼Weak credit growth signalling stalled investment
- ▼M2 at 11.76% seeding future price pressure
Remittance
August flash near $2.97bn; inflows still cushioning the external gap.
Remittance Inflow
Monthly remittance last plotted at $2.86bn for the Jul 2026 print, up from $2.42bn a year earlier and off the $3.76bn window high.
Range over the year ran $2.42bn to $3.76bn; the Jul 2026 read sits in the lower half.
Treasury: inflows remain a reliable offset to the trade gap, though the Jul read is below the seasonal peak.
WATCH
- ◆Final Aug remittance confirming the $2.97bn flash
- ◆Whether the ~23% YoY pace holds into the autumn
- ◆Formal-channel inflows versus informal routes as the taka stays stable
RISK
- ▼Flash figure revised down in the final print
- ▼Remittance softening if global labour markets tighten
- ▼Over-reliance on transfers to fund the trade gap
Fiscal
NBR take at BDT 4.15tn; June bank borrowing BDT 0.94tn.
NBR Tax Revenue
Monthly NBR tax revenue last read BDT 28,027cr for the Oct 2025 print, up from BDT 26,555cr a year earlier.
Series ranged BDT 21,478cr to BDT 52,720cr since Jul 2023; the Oct 2025 read sits mid-range.
Treasury: revenue momentum is modest near 5% YoY, keeping the deficit reliant on bank and bond financing.
WATCH
- ◆Fresh NBR monthly print to update the Oct 2025 revenue read
- ◆Government borrowing pace off the BDT 0.94tn Jun figure
- ◆Auction supply as the deficit is financed
RISK
- ▼Revenue shortfall widening the financing need
- ▼Bank borrowing crowding out private credit
- ▼Stale fiscal data obscuring the true YTD trajectory
Iran War & Oil
Crude holds above $100; the import bill inherits the pressure.
Brent Crude
Brent climbed to $103.87 by the 18 Sep 2026 print from $81.45 in late Jun, holding just below the $108.35 window high.
Up roughly 28% since the 22 Jun start of the series; the window low was $71.18.
Treasury/credit: expect import-bill pressure and watch H2 receivables on energy-exposed lines through the next refinancing cycle.
WATCH
- ◆Brent holding above $100 into the next fuel procurement round
- ◆H2 receivables 60–90 DPD (Days Past Due) on energy-exposed credit lines
- ◆Pass-through to domestic fuel prices and the CPI print
RISK
- ▼Sustained crude above $100 re-widening the import bill and trade gap
- ▼Reserve drawdown to fund higher energy imports
- ▼Oil-driven inflation reversing the disinflation glide
Oil is the external variable that touches every domestic account at once, and at $103.87 for Brent it is pushing the wrong way for Bangladesh. The climb from $81 in late Jun is a move of roughly 28%, and for a country that imports most of its fuel the pass-through is direct: a larger energy line in the import bill, a wider trade gap than the $3.31bn of the Jun print, and slower reserve accumulation than the $37.35bn Aug reading would otherwise allow. The second-order chain is where the desk should focus. Higher landed fuel costs feed the CPI just as the 12-month average eased to 8.66% on the Aug print, threatening the disinflation that underpins the easing cycle. For credit, energy-exposed importers face thinner coverage on H2 receivables. The desk holds a defensive posture on that segment and treats the reserve cushion as a resource oil is now spending.
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