Headlines
Regulatory and trade headlines outweighed market moves across the week.
Food's Share of Spending Rises as Income Falls
An IMF chart, built on USDA data, plots food spending as a share of GDP against food's share of total consumer spending. Poorer economies sit further up and further right on both scales.
- ▸Advanced economies hold the bottom-left corner. Food takes roughly 5 to 22 percent of consumer spending in that group, on food outlays worth under about 13 percent of GDP.
- ▸Emerging markets spread across the whole middle of the chart. Their markers run from about 11 percent of consumer spending to above 40 percent, and the group overlaps the advanced cluster at one end and the low-income band at the other.
- ▸Low-income developing countries occupy the top-right. Every marker in that group sits above roughly 29 percent of consumer spending, and the highest of them approach 55 percent.
A household that already spends half its money on food has no cheaper category to move into, so a price rise comes out of everything else it buys. The IMF places Bangladesh in the low-income group at the upper right of this chart. Food and beverages carry the largest single weight in the Bangladesh CPI basket, which is the same fact seen from the other side.
Food inflation belongs in the credit process, not only in the macro commentary. A price move reaches disposable income before it reaches any borrower's file, and the thinnest-buffer books — retail, microfinance-linked exposure, small-ticket SME — feel it first. A risk team reading food prices only off the monthly CPI print is working from the slowest signal available.
Policy & Rates (Bangladesh Bank)
Bangladesh Bank held its corridor through the week with liquidity ample.
FX Reserves
Gross reserves rose to $37.35bn in the Aug 2026 plot from $33.19bn last December, up about $4.2bn over the nine-month series.
Near the top of the 13-point series, which opened at $33.19bn in Dec 2025.
Treasury: import cover near 5mo gives room, but the print is month-old — watch the next reserve refresh before sizing FX cover.
WATCH
- ◆Next MPS signal on whether the 9.50% repo holds into Q4
- ◆Call money term structure — 14-day at 9.29% versus 8.79% overnight
- ◆A reserve refresh beyond the Aug 2026 $37.35bn print
RISK
- ▼Term money creeping above the repo if quarter-end funding tightens
- ▼Reserve cover resting on a month-old print
Banking
Bad loans held near a third of the book through the quarter.
Overnight Money Market
DOMMR eased to 8.84% by 24 Sep from 10.09% in mid-April, a ~125bp fall over the 107-point series — funding stays cheap.
Series opened 15 Apr 2026 at 10.09%; the 24 Sep read is near its 8.67% low.
ALCO: cheap overnight funding cushions margins, but it will not offset provisioning drag on a 32.78% NPL book.
WATCH
- ◆Q3 2026 NPL print — whether the 32.78% plateau breaks
- ◆A refreshed CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio) read beyond the Q3 2025 vintage
- ◆Provisioning capacity as private credit stays near 5% YoY
RISK
- ▼Capital shortfall at weaker state-owned commercial banks (SCBs) if a fresh CAR read confirms the Q3 2025 level
- ▼NPL migration into higher Days Past Due (DPD) buckets on stalled recoveries
The banking book carried the same structural weight through the week it has all quarter. Gross non-performing loans stood at 32.78% on the Q2 2026 print — close to a third of advances — and the newest capital read is the Q3 2025 CAR at 1.56%, now 360 days old. The gap between those vintages is itself the signal: the income statement is being tested faster than the balance sheet refreshes. The overnight money market told a calmer story, with the Dhaka Overnight Money Market Rate (DOMMR) easing to 8.84% on 24 Sep from 10.09% in mid-April, so funding is cheap even as asset quality stays impaired. Entering next week the desk stance is defensive on credit and opportunistic on funding — term liquidity is abundant, but any fresh provisioning shock lands on capital already stretched.
FX & External
External accounts steady on the taka but strained on imports.
External Flow Balance
Exports reached $4.20bn in Jun 2026 from $3.35bn a year earlier, but imports hit a series-high $7.51bn — the trade gap kept widening.
Imports at their highest on the 24-point series, which opened at $5.25bn in Jul 2024.
Treasury: a widening goods gap leans on remittance and reserves to fund — watch the import letter-of-credit pipeline as Brent firms.
WATCH
- ◆The next reserve print beyond Aug 2026's $37.35bn
- ◆July–August export momentum after June's $4.20bn
- ◆USD/BDT drift past 123.22 into the Q4 import season
RISK
- ▼The import bill re-accelerating on Brent near $100
- ▼Trade gap widening beyond June's $3.31bn if exports soften
DSE Markets
DSEX eased from its weekly peak with decliners outnumbering gainers.
DSEX Index
DSEX closed at 5,540.32 on 22 Sep, essentially flat over the year from 5,415.13 on 25 Sep 2025 and well off the 5,926.28 series high.
The 22 Sep read is a 3-session low (5,532.15 on 17 Sep the last lower close).
Equity desk: a flat year and negative breadth argue for range-trading, not chasing — watch for a break of the 17 Sep low.
WATCH
- ◆DSEX follow-through after the 22 Sep 5,540.32 read (data lags 3 days)
- ◆Turnover recovering above Tk791cr
- ◆Breadth — whether decliners keep leading into next week
RISK
- ▼Momentum breaking below the 17 Sep 5,532.15 low
- ▼Thin turnover amplifying downside on any sell program
T-Bonds & T-Bills
T-bill cut-offs firmed slightly at the 21 Sep auction after a sharp quarter fall.
BD Govt Yield Ladder
The 10-year yield fell to 8.54% by the Sep 2026 plot from 10.24% in Jul 2026, a 170bp drop over the three-month series.
Both ends of the three-point series bracket the move — 10.24% in Jul, 8.54% now, the low.
ALCO: the bulk of the duration gain is booked; lock now rather than chase yields below 8.5%.
WATCH
- ◆Next T-bill auction — whether the front-end firming extends
- ◆10y bond refresh beyond the 16 Sep 8.54% print
- ◆MPS guidance on the policy-rate path into Q4
RISK
- ▼Front-end yields reversing higher if quarter-end funding tightens
- ▼Duration losses if the rally has bottomed near 8.3%
The story in rates this week was a pause, not a turn. The quarter's defining move was a broad collapse in yields — the 364-day T-Bill cut-off fell from 10.09% in July to 8.47% at the 21 Sep auction, and the 10-year bond from 10.24% to 8.54%, a shift of about 165bp across the curve. This week that momentum stalled at the short end: the 182-day cut-off firmed to 8.45% from 8.38% and the 364-day to 8.47% from 8.42%, while only the 91-day eased marginally to 8.32%. The read is that the front end has found a floor near the 8.3% to 8.5% band while the policy rate holds at 9.50%. Entering next week the risk-reward has shifted — the desk has captured the bulk of the rally and should lock duration rather than chase further downside in yields, with quarter-end funding a live upside risk to the front end.
Macro & Inflation
Headline inflation eased even as money supply growth hit a multi-year high.
CPI Trend
The 12-month average CPI eased to 8.66% in the Jul 2026 plot from 9.77% a year earlier, near the 8.59% series low.
The latest read is the lowest since May 2026 (8.6% then).
Treasury: with the real policy rate positive at 1.24%, expect the MPC to hold the 9.50% repo at the next MPS.
WATCH
- ◆Aug 2026 CPI point-to-point for confirmation of the disinflation trend
- ◆M2 growth after Jul 2026's 11.76% — the highest since 2021
- ◆REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) drift past the Mar 2026 102.78 read on competitiveness
RISK
- ▼Money growth at 11.76% feeding back into prices and undoing disinflation
- ▼REER appreciation eroding export competitiveness
Remittance
Remittances held near $2.97bn on the August provisional flash.
Remittance Inflow
Remittance ran to $2.86bn in the Jul 2026 plot from $2.42bn a year earlier, up about 18%, though below the $3.76bn series high.
The 12-point series opened at $2.42bn in Aug 2025 — also its low; the latest plot is Jul 2026.
Treasury: steady inflows offset part of the trade gap; watch the September print to confirm funding support into Q4.
WATCH
- ◆The September remittance print confirming the ~$2.9bn run-rate
- ◆Whether the August $2.97bn flash is revised on final data
- ◆Inflow strength against a firm oil-driven import bill
RISK
- ▼A remittance pullback leaving the trade gap harder to fund
- ▼A flash-to-final revision lowering the August $2.97bn read
Fiscal
Revenue and borrowing figures unchanged from prior prints entering the week.
NBR Tax Revenue
Monthly NBR revenue was BDT 28,027cr in the Oct 2025 plot, up from BDT 26,555cr a year earlier but well below the BDT 52,720cr series peak.
The 28-point series opened at BDT 22,005cr in Jul 2023; the latest plotted point is Oct 2025.
Fiscal: monthly collection runs ~5% above year-ago, but the plotted series lags — treat YTD as the live gauge into Q1 FY27.
WATCH
- ◆Q1 FY27 NBR collection update against target
- ◆Government bank borrowing beyond the Jun 2026 BDT 0.94tn read
- ◆The bond supply calendar into Q4
RISK
- ▼A revenue shortfall forcing heavier bank borrowing and bond supply
- ▼Yields backing up if fiscal financing needs rise
Iran War & Oil
Brent held near $100, keeping the import-bill and inflation risks live.
Brent Crude
Brent climbed to $98.32 by the 23 Sep plot from $73.57 in late June, a $24.75 run over the quarter, though below the $108.35 high.
The 78-point series spans $71.18 to $108.35 since 27 Jun 2026; the latest plot is near the top.
Treasury: budget import cover for crude near $100 into Q4; watch reserves and the trade gap if the move holds.
WATCH
- ◆Whether Brent breaks and holds above $100 next week
- ◆The spread to the $108.35 Q3 peak as the ceiling
- ◆Pass-through to the Q4 import bill and imported inflation
RISK
- ▼Sustained crude above $100 widening the trade gap and draining reserves
- ▼Energy-importer credit lines seeing receivables stretch on higher fuel costs
Oil was the week's defining variable, and it sits directly on Bangladesh's external accounts. Brent closed at $98.32 a barrel on 25 Sep, with WTI at $92.25 — crude has climbed from the low-$70s where the series opened in late June to within a dollar of $100, though it stays below the $108.35 peak reached earlier this quarter. The mechanism is direct: Bangladesh imports most of its fuel, so a sustained move through $100 lifts the import bill, and June already printed a series-high $7.51bn of imports against a $3.31bn trade gap. That pressures gross reserves — still $37.35bn on the Aug 2026 print — and feeds imported inflation just as the 12-month CPI average eased to 8.66%. Entering next week the desk stance is defensive externally: fund import letters of credit ahead of further crude gains, and watch reserves and the taka for strain if Brent holds above $100.
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