Headlines
Retail-payments reform and imported cost pressure share today's front pages.
Food's Share of Spending Rises as Income Falls
An IMF chart, built on USDA data, plots food spending as a share of GDP against food's share of total consumer spending. Poorer economies sit further up and further right on both scales.
- ▸Advanced economies hold the bottom-left corner. Food takes roughly 5 to 22 percent of consumer spending in that group, on food outlays worth under about 13 percent of GDP.
- ▸Emerging markets spread across the whole middle of the chart. Their markers run from about 11 percent of consumer spending to above 40 percent, and the group overlaps the advanced cluster at one end and the low-income band at the other.
- ▸Low-income developing countries occupy the top-right. Every marker in that group sits above roughly 29 percent of consumer spending, and the highest of them approach 55 percent.
A household that already spends half its money on food has no cheaper category to move into, so a price rise comes out of everything else it buys. The IMF places Bangladesh in the low-income group at the upper right of this chart. Food and beverages carry the largest single weight in the Bangladesh CPI basket, which is the same fact seen from the other side.
Food inflation belongs in the credit process, not only in the macro commentary. A price move reaches disposable income before it reaches any borrower's file, and the thinnest-buffer books — retail, microfinance-linked exposure, small-ticket SME — feel it first. A risk team reading food prices only off the monthly CPI print is working from the slowest signal available.
Policy & Rates (Bangladesh Bank)
Corridor intact; call money at 8.72% signals ample liquidity.
FX Reserves
Gross reserves rose to $37.35bn in the Aug 2026 print from $33.19bn in Dec 2025, a build of about $4.16bn over 13 months.
Near the series high of $37.58bn, up from the $33.18bn Dec 2025 trough.
Treasury: the reserve build underwrites import cover near 5.5 months; watch whether Sep sustains the trend or the net figure ($32.44bn) lags.
WATCH
- ◆The next MPS for any move off the 9.5% repo
- ◆14-day call money at 10.75% pressing the 11% SLF ceiling
RISK
- ▼Term-money stress if the 14-day rate breaches the SLF ceiling
- ▼Reserve gains unwinding on any remittance slowdown
Banking
NPLs at 32.78% on Q2 data; the capital read is a year stale.
Overnight Money Market
DOMMR (Dhaka Overnight Money Market Rate) eased to 8.79% by the 27 Sep print from 10.09% in mid-Apr; BOFR (Bangladesh Overnight Financing Rate) tracked to 8.96%.
Both sit near their five-month lows (DOMMR floor 8.67%), down from April highs above 10.4%.
Treasury: overnight funding has cheapened materially since April; the money-market cost of carry no longer squeezes short books.
WATCH
- ◆The Q1/Q2 2026 CAR disclosure to refresh the year-old capital read
- ◆Provisioning coverage on the 32.78% impaired stock
RISK
- ▼Capital shortfall masked by the stale Q3 2025 CAR
- ▼Provisioning gap widening as the NPL stock stays near a third of loans
The two banking numbers sit in different periods, and that gap is itself the story. NPLs read 32.78% on the Q2 2026 print — close to a third of the loan book classified as non-performing — while the only capital figure available, CAR at 1.56%, dates to Q3 2025 and is now about a year old. A current-quarter impairment ratio and a capital ratio from four quarters earlier cannot be paired into one solvency picture; they must be read as of different dates, and the more recent of the two is the worse one. For the desk, the implication is caution on unsecured exposure to the weakest institutions until the capital read refreshes: the impaired stock is large and current, the cushion behind it small and stale. The next CAR disclosure is the single print that would let the sector's tail risk be sized properly.
FX & External
Taka steady at 123.03; the account leans on remittance, not exports.
External Flow Balance
Exports were $4,202.7mn in the Jun 2026 print, up from $3,350.2mn a year earlier; imports ran $6,781.99mn in Jul 2026, keeping the goods gap wide.
Exports up ~25% YoY (Jun 2025: $3,350.2mn); imports up from $6,270.5mn a year ago (Jul 2025).
Treasury: the trade gap keeps FX demand structural; peg support rests on remittance and reserves, not the goods balance.
WATCH
- ◆The next reserves print for confirmation of the Aug build
- ◆USD/BDT for any drift off 123.03 as import demand runs
RISK
- ▼A goods gap near $2.6bn a month if exports stay soft
- ▼Peg pressure if remittance inflow slows from the Aug pace
The peg is stable, and it is worth naming precisely why. Gross reserves reached $37.35bn on the Aug print, the top of the 13-month range, and the taka has sat at USD/BDT 123.03. But trade is not what funds this: exports were $4.20bn in the Jun 2026 print while imports ran near $6.78bn in July, a monthly goods gap of roughly $2.6bn. What closes that gap is remittance — a $2.97bn Aug flash — plus the reserve build itself. That makes the external position a remittance story wearing an FX label: while the inflow holds, the peg holds and import cover stays near 5.5 months on July data. The exposure sits in the correlation — a remittance slowdown would show in reserves and the rate at the same time, so the desk should track the monthly inflow as the leading indicator for peg stress, not the spot rate.
DSE Markets
Index off 0.18% on 22 Sep data; decliners led advancers two-to-one.
DSEX Index
DSEX at 5,540.32 on the 22 Sep print, up from 5,380.08 a year earlier but well below the 5,926.28 12-month peak.
A 3-session low (5,532.15 on 17 Sep the last lower close), off the 5,926.28 window high.
Equity desk: gains hold barely YoY; watch whether breadth stabilises before adding risk on the thin tape.
WATCH
- ◆Turnover for any recovery from the Tk 791.49cr thin tape
- ◆Breadth turning after the 22 Sep 227/103 decline skew
RISK
- ▼Continued distribution if decliners keep leading on low volume
- ▼The stale 22 Sep read masking a further leg down
T-Bonds & T-Bills
Bills steady in the low-8s; the long bond read is a fortnight old.
BD Govt Yield Ladder
The 364-day T-Bill yield fell to 8.47% by the Sep 2026 print from 10.09% in Jul 2026; the 91-day dropped to 8.32% from 9.79%.
Down roughly 160bp across the front in three monthly prints (Jul 2026 high 10.09%).
Treasury: front-end funding has repriced sharply lower since July; roll cheaper T-Bills but watch reinvestment risk as yields fall.
WATCH
- ◆The next weekly bond quote to refresh the 9–16 Sep reads
- ◆The 364-day stop for further drift above 8.47%
RISK
- ▼A flat curve compressing carry on the government book
- ▼Bond reads a fortnight stale ahead of any yield move
Macro & Inflation
CPI 12m avg at 8.66% on Aug data; M2 growth the fastest since 2021.
CPI Trend
The 12-month average CPI eased to 8.66% by the Jul 2026 plotted point, down from a 10.34% window peak; the series low is 8.59%.
Lowest since May 2026 (8.6% then), and down from 9.77% a year earlier (Jul 2025).
Treasury: headline inflation is grinding down but slowly; the positive real policy rate supports a hold at the next MPS.
WATCH
- ◆Non-food CPI at 9.23% for stickiness in the next BBS print
- ◆M2 momentum against the 4.98% private-credit read
RISK
- ▼Money growth outrunning credit, consistent with reserve-money injection
- ▼REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) at 102.78 on the Mar print overstating competitiveness if refreshed higher
Remittance
Aug inflow $2.97bn, up 22.6% YoY — the external account's mainstay.
Remittance Inflow
Remittance ran $2,858.68mn in the Jul 2026 plotted point, up from the $2,421.9mn window low struck in Aug 2025; the peak was $3,755.1mn.
Range $2,421.9–3,755.1mn over 12 monthly points; the Aug 2025 start was the low.
Treasury: the inflow trend underwrites reserves and import cover; track the monthly print as the peg's leading indicator.
WATCH
- ◆The final Aug remittance number against the $2.97bn flash
- ◆The Sep inflow to confirm the run rate holds
RISK
- ▼A pullback in inflow flowing straight through to reserves and the peg
- ▼A flash-to-final revision lower on the $2.97bn provisional
Remittance is the main support under the external account right now, and the Aug flash is the clearest evidence. At $2.97bn the inflow is up about 22.6% on Aug 2025's $2.42bn, and it arrives into a system where exports ($4.20bn in June) do not cover imports (near $6.78bn in July) — a monthly goods gap of roughly $2.6bn. What closes that gap, and what has pushed gross reserves to $37.35bn on the Aug print with import cover near 5.5 months on July data, is the remittance line plus the reserve accumulation it funds. The figure is provisional and about four weeks old, so treat the exact level as subject to revision. The structural point holds: the peg at USD/BDT 123.03 and the reserve cushion are, for now, a remittance story. The desk should watch the monthly inflow as the leading indicator of peg stability — a slowdown would surface in reserves and the rate together.
Fiscal
Revenue holding at BDT 4.15tn YTD; the borrowing figure dates to June.
NBR Tax Revenue
Monthly NBR revenue was BDT 28,027cr in the Oct 2025 print, up from BDT 26,555cr a year earlier; the series ranges BDT 21,478–52,720cr.
Up ~5.5% YoY (Oct 2024: BDT 26,555cr); well off the BDT 52,720cr series peak.
Fiscal: monthly collection is grinding higher but the peak months carry the annual target; watch the next monthly print.
WATCH
- ◆The Oct NBR monthly print for the revenue trajectory
- ◆A refreshed bank-borrowing figure past the Jun 2026 read
RISK
- ▼A revenue undershoot forcing heavier bank borrowing later in FY
- ▼Stale borrowing data understating current fiscal financing
Iran War & Oil
Brent near $97 keeps the energy import bill and lubricant costs elevated.
Brent Crude
Brent climbed to $97.44/bbl by the 25 Sep plotted point from $73.56 at end-June, a run of about 32%; the window peaked at $108.35.
Up from a $71.18 window low; still below the $108.35 high struck earlier in the run.
Risk: sustained $90s Brent widens the import bill; watch energy-importer lines for margin and receivables stress.
WATCH
- ◆Brent holding above $95 into the next refi cycle
- ◆Pass-through to domestic fuel and LPG prices
RISK
- ▼Import-bill inflation widening the trade gap
- ▼Energy-importer receivables slipping 60–90 DPD (Days Past Due) on higher input costs
Oil is the top macro risk for a net energy importer, and the read is current. Brent settled at $97.44/bbl and WTI at $92.41/bbl on the 28 Sep read, both near the upper end of the range since late June, when Brent sat around $73.56. That price flows straight into the import bill: LPG imports have fallen 25% with cylinder prices above Tk 2,000, and lubricant costs are climbing on the Middle East squeeze. For the desk, the exposure is energy-importer credit lines — higher input costs press margins and can push receivables out on the ageing schedule. Watch whether Brent holds above $95 and how quickly the pass-through reaches domestic fuel and LPG.
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