Headlines
Oil spike is the through-line; watch imported-input costs bleed into margins.
The day's front pages share one driver: Brent at $97.98, up from $73.35 in early July, is feeding through to domestic input costs. Poultry feed is 27% dearer on raw-material costs, lubricant prices are climbing on the Middle East squeeze, and companies are trimming spend to hold margin. On the credit side, trade and commerce lead the fresh NPL buildup, so the import-linked exposures that carry the higher oil bill are also where loan stress is concentrating. Gross reserves at $37.35bn on the August print and import cover at 5.51 months on July data absorb the bill for now, but the desk watches the next monthly import print for the first clean read on oil pass-through.
Food's Share of Spending Rises as Income Falls
An IMF chart, built on USDA data, plots food spending as a share of GDP against food's share of total consumer spending. Poorer economies sit further up and further right on both scales.
- ▸Advanced economies hold the bottom-left corner. Food takes roughly 5 to 22 percent of consumer spending in that group, on food outlays worth under about 13 percent of GDP.
- ▸Emerging markets spread across the whole middle of the chart. Their markers run from about 11 percent of consumer spending to above 40 percent, and the group overlaps the advanced cluster at one end and the low-income band at the other.
- ▸Low-income developing countries occupy the top-right. Every marker in that group sits above roughly 29 percent of consumer spending, and the highest of them approach 55 percent.
A household that already spends half its money on food has no cheaper category to move into, so a price rise comes out of everything else it buys. The IMF places Bangladesh in the low-income group at the upper right of this chart. Food and beverages carry the largest single weight in the Bangladesh CPI basket, which is the same fact seen from the other side.
Food inflation belongs in the credit process, not only in the macro commentary. A price move reaches disposable income before it reaches any borrower's file, and the thinnest-buffer books — retail, microfinance-linked exposure, small-ticket SME — feel it first. A risk team reading food prices only off the monthly CPI print is working from the slowest signal available.
Policy & Rates (Bangladesh Bank)
Corridor held at 9.5%; overnight funding sits mid-corridor at 8.59%.
FX Reserves
Gross reserves climbed from $33.19bn (Dec 2025) to $37.35bn as of the Aug 2026 print, near the series high of $37.58bn.
Reserves' series low was $33.19bn (Dec 2025); the Aug 2026 print sits near the $37.58bn high.
Treasury: the rising reserve trend cushions the oil-driven import bill; watch the next monthly print for any drawdown.
WATCH
- ◆MPS timing for any repo move off 9.5%
- ◆call money drift toward the 11.0% SLF ceiling
RISK
- ▼liquidity tightening if the oil-driven import bill widens
- ▼corridor breach on a funding-stress event
Banking
NPLs at 32.78% on the Q2 print; concentration risk unresolved.
Overnight Money Market
The Dhaka Overnight Money Market Rate (DOMMR) eased from 10.09% (15 Apr) to 8.70% by the 28 Sep print; BOFR (Bangladesh Overnight Financing Rate) fell in step to 8.86%.
Down roughly 140bp since the 15 Apr series start (10.09% then), now near the 8.67% series low.
Treasury: cheaper overnight funding eases short-tenor cost, but the NPL and oil backdrop caps how far credit spreads can compress.
WATCH
- ◆Q3 2026 NPL disclosure for a continued buildup
- ◆trade and commerce loan books on 90+ days past due (DPD) migration
RISK
- ▼concentration of the NPL stock in state-owned commercial banks (SCBs)
- ▼provisioning gap widening against a stale CAR read
The NPL ratio held at 32.78% on the Q2 2026 print, close to a third of the loan book and unchanged from its recent reading. The signal that matters this week is composition: reporting puts trade and commerce at the top of the new NPL buildup, which aims the deterioration at working-capital and import-linked credit — the exposures most sensitive to the current oil-led cost shock. With Brent near $98, importers face wider bills and thinner coverage, and the marginal borrower in that segment is the one most likely to slip past 90 days past due (DPD). The latest CAR read dates to the Q3 2025 print, so the capital cushion behind this NPL stock cannot be confirmed on current data. The desk treats trade and import-finance books as the near-term migration risk and prices provisioning conservatively into that segment.
FX & External
Taka holds 122.76; reserves at $37.35bn on the Aug print cushion oil.
External Flow Balance
Exports rose to $4.20bn as of the Jun 2026 print from $3.35bn a year earlier; imports ran higher at $6.78bn in the Jul print.
Exports up from $3.35bn in Jun 2025; imports at $6.78bn keep the trade gap wide.
Treasury: the trade gap is covered by remittance and reserves; watch the next import print for oil pass-through widening it further.
WATCH
- ◆the monthly import bill on the next print for oil pass-through
- ◆the reserve trajectory if the oil-driven bill accelerates drawdown
RISK
- ▼oil-led import surge eroding import cover
- ▼export concentration in RMG against the diversification push
The external accounts are the buffer the oil shock has to pass through. On current inputs the taka is steady at USD/BDT 122.76, gross reserves stood at $37.35bn in the August print, and exports ran at $4.20bn in June, up from $3.35bn a year earlier. That combination has held the currency without visible intervention stress. The pressure point is imports: Brent near $98 lifts the energy and derived-input bill — lubricants and feed are already dearer — and imports were $6.78bn in the July series print against that $4.20bn export line. The gap is financed out of reserves and remittance, the latter at $2.86bn in the July series print. The desk reads the currency as stable near-term but watches the monthly import print for the first clear oil pass-through, since that is where reserve cover erodes before the peg shows strain.
DSE Markets
DSEX at 5,540 on the 22 Sep print; breadth stays negative.
DSEX Index
DSEX at 5,540.32 as of the 22 Sep print, up from 5,389.78 a year earlier but well below the 5,926.28 series high.
A 3-session low (5,532.15 on 17 Sep the last lower close), though up roughly 3% versus a year ago.
Equity desk: low turnover and negative breadth argue for patience; watch for a volume-backed base before adding risk.
WATCH
- ◆turnover recovery above the Tk 791 crore level for conviction
- ◆breadth flipping positive on the next session print
RISK
- ▼further breadth deterioration on the oil-cost overhang
- ▼liquidity thinning if rates stay elevated
T-Bonds & T-Bills
Short-end steady; 364d cut-off up to 8.95% at the 28 Sep auction.
BD Govt Yield Ladder
Monthly yields fell across the curve — the 364d from 10.09% (Jul) to 8.95% as of the Sep print, the 10y from 10.24% to 8.54%.
Yields have fallen since the Jul 2026 print (364d 10.09% then), the 10y down to 8.54% from 10.24%.
Treasury: the quarter's rate decline lowers rollover cost, but the latest 364d auction tick-up flags where supply pressure is building.
WATCH
- ◆the next weekly auction for confirmation of the 364d step-up
- ◆a 5y and 10y refresh to update the curve's long end
RISK
- ▼rising bill cut-offs lifting the government's rollover cost
- ▼curve steepening pressure from heavier issuance
Macro & Inflation
CPI 12m avg at 8.66% on the Aug print — lowest since May.
CPI Trend
The 12-month average CPI eased to 8.66% as of the Jul 2026 point, down from 9.97% at the Sep 2024 series start and off the 10.34% high.
The latest reading is the lowest since May 2026 (8.6% then), extending the disinflation off the 10.34% peak.
ALCO: disinflation supports the current 9.5% repo hold, but the oil-cost pass-through is the near-term risk to the food and non-food path.
WATCH
- ◆the September CPI print for a fourth month of easing
- ◆non-food inflation given the oil-cost pass-through
- ◆M2 momentum against the disinflation path
RISK
- ▼oil-led cost shock reversing food and non-food disinflation
- ▼M2 acceleration loosening financial conditions
- ▼currency overvaluation on a stale March index read
Remittance
August flash at $2.97bn; inflows well above a year ago.
Remittance Inflow
Monthly remittance ran at $2.86bn as of the Jul 2026 chart point, up from $2.42bn a year earlier and off the $3.76bn peak.
The trailing-year low was $2.42bn (Aug 2025); inflows have stayed above that floor through the Jul 2026 point.
Treasury: remittance is a reliable offset to the oil-import bill; watch whether the August flash of $2.97bn holds on revision.
WATCH
- ◆the finalised August remittance figure on revision
- ◆festival-season inflow momentum into Q4
RISK
- ▼a pullback in inflows narrowing external-account cover
- ▼a channel shift to informal transfers if the official spread widens
Fiscal
NBR YTD at BDT 4.15tn; government bank borrowing at BDT 0.94tn on Jun data.
NBR Tax Revenue
Monthly NBR revenue ran at BDT 28,027cr as of the Oct 2025 print, up from BDT 26,555cr a year earlier.
Revenue has ranged from BDT 21,478cr to a BDT 52,720cr peak since the Jul 2023 series start (BDT 22,005cr then).
Fiscal: revenue up roughly 5.5% YoY on the Oct 2025 print; a soft collection trend keeps bank borrowing in play to fund the deficit.
WATCH
- ◆the monthly NBR revenue print for collection momentum
- ◆government bank borrowing if the revenue gap widens
RISK
- ▼a revenue shortfall forcing heavier domestic bank borrowing
- ▼subsidy overrun on fertiliser squeezing fiscal space
Iran War & Oil
Brent at $97.98, up from $73 in early July on Iran risk.
Brent Crude
Brent climbed from $73.35 (1 Jul) to $97.98 as of the 28 Sep chart point, roughly a one-third rise over the quarter.
The quarter's low was $71.18 and the high $108.35; the latest print sits near the upper end.
Treasury: budget the fuel-import bill at a higher crude clip; watch reserve cover if Brent holds above $95 into Q4.
WATCH
- ◆Brent's approach to the $108.35 quarter high
- ◆the next monthly import bill for fuel pass-through
RISK
- ▼sustained crude above $95 widening the import bill
- ▼second-round inflation via freight and input costs
Oil is the day's transmission channel. Brent at $97.98 and WTI at $92.71 in the 29 Sep quote extend a run from $73.35 at the start of July — roughly a one-third rise — with the latest step higher following the rejection of an Iran peace proposal. The mechanism for Bangladesh is direct: crude sets the fuel-import bill and feeds freight, fertiliser and feed costs, and the 27% poultry-feed jump and higher lubricant prices this week are the early evidence. Two things follow. The external buffer takes the strain first — a heavier fuel bill draws on reserves and remittance before the peg feels it, so the monthly import print is the number to watch. And the disinflation story turns fragile: non-food CPI is already sticky at 9.32% on the August print, and a pass-through would stall the easing that took the 12-month average to 8.66% on the same print. The book stays defensive on energy-linked import credit.
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