Headlines
Port concessions, a bank-deposit restart and a first bond buyback shaped the week.
Food's Share of Spending Rises as Income Falls
An IMF chart, built on USDA data, plots food spending as a share of GDP against food's share of total consumer spending. Poorer economies sit further up and further right on both scales.
- ▸Advanced economies hold the bottom-left corner. Food takes roughly 5 to 22 percent of consumer spending in that group, on food outlays worth under about 13 percent of GDP.
- ▸Emerging markets spread across the whole middle of the chart. Their markers run from about 11 percent of consumer spending to above 40 percent, and the group overlaps the advanced cluster at one end and the low-income band at the other.
- ▸Low-income developing countries occupy the top-right. Every marker in that group sits above roughly 29 percent of consumer spending, and the highest of them approach 55 percent.
A household that already spends half its money on food has no cheaper category to move into, so a price rise comes out of everything else it buys. The IMF places Bangladesh in the low-income group at the upper right of this chart. Food and beverages carry the largest single weight in the Bangladesh CPI basket, which is the same fact seen from the other side.
Food inflation belongs in the credit process, not only in the macro commentary. A price move reaches disposable income before it reaches any borrower's file, and the thinnest-buffer books — retail, microfinance-linked exposure, small-ticket SME — feel it first. A risk team reading food prices only off the monthly CPI print is working from the slowest signal available.
Policy & Rates (Bangladesh Bank)
Funding rates fell to series lows even as the policy rate held.
FX Reserves
Gross reserves rose to $37.35bn by the Aug 2026 point, up from $33.19bn in Dec 2025, near the $37.58bn series high.
Reserves have climbed for most of 2026, up about $4.2bn since the Dec 2025 low.
Treasury: the external buffer is rebuilding, but the Aug print is 39 days old — watch for a September refresh before sizing FX cover.
WATCH
- ◆Next T-Bill auction cut-offs as the liquidity signal
- ◆A September reserves print beyond the $37.35bn Aug figure
- ◆Whether call money holds below 8% into next week
RISK
- ▼Liquidity easing may reflect soft private-credit demand, not comfort
- ▼Reserves data 39 days old masks the current external position
Two things moved in the same direction this week and they belong together. The 5 October auction took the 364-day T-Bill cut-off down 35.5bp to 8.59%, and interbank rates sank with it — DOMMR to 7.81% and overnight call money to 7.69%, both at the floor of the series that began in April above 10%. The policy rate did not move; it has held at 9.5% since the 30 July cut. That widening gap between the standing corridor and where cash clears tells the desk the banking system is sitting on surplus short-term liquidity, not that policy has turned. For the cost of carry, the signal to trade next week is the auction and the call rate, not the headline repo. The question into next week is whether the rally through the short end extends or stalls at the next auction.
Banking
Interbank funding eased to series lows while NPL and CAR prints stayed old.
Overnight Money Market
DOMMR fell to 7.81% by 8 Oct, from 10.09% in mid-April; BOFR tracked it down to 7.83% from 10.42%.
Both rates sit at their series lows, the floor since the April 2026 start of the window.
ALCO: funding relief lifts margins near-term, but watch whether the next NPL print erodes the benefit.
WATCH
- ◆Whether a fresh CAR print updates the 374-day-old Q3 2025 read
- ◆A Q3 2026 NPL release to confirm or break the 32.78% level
- ◆National Bank deposit disbursement from 15 Oct as a confidence signal
RISK
- ▼Capital-adequacy visibility is a year stale, obscuring true buffers
- ▼A high NPL base leaves little room for a fresh asset-quality shock
- ▼A foreign retail exit may shift premium deposits
The banking section split in two this week. On the funding side, interbank rates completed a long decline — DOMMR reached 7.81% and BOFR 7.83% on 8 October, both the lowest in the series that opened in April above 10%. On the balance-sheet side, nothing refreshed: the NPL ratio still reads 32.78% from the Q2 2026 print, and CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio) sits at the Q3 2025 figure of 1.56%, now 374 days old. The two sides pull against each other. Lower funding costs widen net interest margins at the margin, but they do not touch the stock of bad loans or the capital that has to carry it. The desk should read this week's relief as cyclical liquidity, not structural repair, and keep provisioning assumptions anchored to the last hard asset-quality read rather than to the easing cost of carry.
FX & External
The taka held near 123.10 while reserves and exports read firmer on older prints.
External Flow Balance
Monthly exports last read $4.20bn for Jun 2026, up from $3.35bn a year earlier; imports $6.78bn in Jul 2026.
Exports up about 25% from June 2025; the trade gap persists near $2.6bn a month.
Treasury: export momentum funds part of the import bill, but Brent at $104 widens the gap — watch the next trade print.
WATCH
- ◆A September reserves refresh beyond the $37.35bn Aug print
- ◆July–September export prints to confirm the YoY pickup
- ◆Gold's trajectory as a risk-off gauge into next week
RISK
- ▼Reserves data 39 days old may misstate the live buffer
- ▼Brent at $104 lifts the import bill against June export strength
- ▼A gold surge signals global risk-off that can pressure frontier FX
DSE Markets
The index gave back about 1% over the week to close at 5,475.
DSEX Index
DSEX closed at 5,475.58 on 8 Oct 2026, up 3.6% from 5,283.72 a year earlier, between a 4,702 low and 5,926 high.
The index sits in the upper half of its 12-month range, above the 4,702 low and nearer the 5,926 high.
Credit/treasury: with yields falling, watch for any rotation from fixed income into equities next week; none is visible yet.
WATCH
- ◆Turnover recovery above Tk533cr as a participation signal
- ◆Whether 5,475 holds as support into next week
- ◆Spillover from falling yields into dividend-sensitive equities
RISK
- ▼Thin turnover magnifies index moves on low conviction
- ▼Falling deposit rates may not rotate flows into equities
T-Bonds & T-Bills
The 5 Oct auction cut yields across the T-Bill curve, led by the 364-day.
BD Govt Yield Ladder
The 364-day T-Bill yield fell to 8.59% by the Oct 2026 point, from 8.89% in Aug 2026; the 10-year eased to 8.54%.
Across the three monthly points since Aug 2026, every tenor from 2-year to 10-year has fallen.
Treasury: the rally concentrated in bills and the belly — extend there, but confirm at the next auction before adding size.
WATCH
- ◆The next T-Bill auction for confirmation the rally extends
- ◆The 5y and 10y prints, 23–30 days old, for long-end follow-through
- ◆Whether short-end cut-offs converge toward the 7.5% SDF floor
RISK
- ▼A liquidity reversal could snap short yields back up quickly
- ▼Long-end bond prints are stale, hiding any curve steepening
- ▼Rapid cut-offs compress carry on new bill positions
This was the week's defining move. At the 5 October auction the 364-day T-Bill cut-off fell 35.5bp to 8.59%, the 182-day dropped 18bp to 8.37% and the 91-day eased 15bp to 8.13% — the whole bill curve repriced lower in a single session. The driver sits in the money market, not in policy: interbank rates fell to series lows this week, with the Dhaka Overnight Money Market Rate (DOMMR) at 7.81%, while the repo rate has not moved from 9.5% since the 30 July cut. That means the short end is tracking surplus liquidity, and the gap to the standing corridor is where the mispricing lives. Entering next week, a bill book bought at these cut-offs carries thin margin if liquidity tightens, while the 5-year and 10-year prints — at 8.65% and 8.54% but 23 to 30 days old — have not yet confirmed whether the long end follows. The desk should size duration to the auction signal and hedge the reversal risk.
Macro & Inflation
Inflation eased to 8.66% while money supply growth reached a 2021 high.
CPI Trend
CPI 12-month average eased to 8.66% at the Jul 2026 point, from 9.77% a year earlier, its series low of 8.59% nearby.
The latest reading is the lowest since May 2026 (8.6% then).
ALCO: with the real policy rate at 1.24%, easing inflation gives the MPC room to hold — watch the Sep CPI print.
WATCH
- ◆The September 2026 CPI print for whether the easing holds
- ◆Whether M2 growth above 11% feeds back into prices
- ◆A private-credit pickup from the 4.98% August level
RISK
- ▼Fast M2 growth risks reigniting inflation if credit turns
- ▼REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) at 102.78 (Mar 2026) signals mild overvaluation for exporters
- ▼Weak private credit caps the growth response to lower rates
Remittance
Remittance ran near $2.97bn on the provisional September flash, up on the year.
Remittance Inflow
Remittance last plotted at $2,967.53mn for Aug 2026, up from $2,685.6mn a year earlier, within a $2,562–3,755mn band.
Inflows are up about 10% from September 2025, holding above the $2,562mn 12-month low.
Treasury: remittance is the steady balance-of-payments leg; watch the confirmed September print against the $2.97bn provisional flash.
WATCH
- ◆The confirmed September figure to replace the provisional flash
- ◆Whether inflows hold the $2.9bn-plus pace into the next month
- ◆Festival-period seasonality in the coming remittance print
RISK
- ▼The provisional flash may revise down on confirmation
- ▼A single soft month would weaken the external support leg
Fiscal
NBR collection and government borrowing read unchanged on months-old prints.
NBR Tax Revenue
Monthly NBR revenue last plotted at Tk28,027cr for Oct 2025, up from Tk26,555cr a year earlier, within a Tk21,478–52,720cr range.
The latest plotted month is Oct 2025; monthly intake runs well below the Tk52,720cr peak.
Fiscal: collection momentum is modest; watch whether FY revenue closes the gap to target in upcoming monthly prints.
WATCH
- ◆The next monthly NBR collection update beyond BDT 4.15tn
- ◆Follow-through buybacks after the first Tk1,716cr operation
- ◆Fresh government-borrowing data beyond the June 2026 figure
RISK
- ▼Frozen collection data obscures the FY revenue trajectory
- ▼Bank borrowing older than three months hides current financing needs
Iran War & Oil
Brent stayed above $104 through the week, a standing import-bill risk.
Brent Crude
Brent climbed from $76 in mid-July to $104.32 by the 8 Oct point, peaking at $108.35 along the way.
Brent has risen about 37% since the 11 July series start at $76.
Credit: at $104 Brent, watch energy-importer receivables for 60–90 DPD (days past due) slippage on the next refi cycle.
WATCH
- ◆Whether Brent holds the $100 line or breaks back toward $108
- ◆OPEC+ supply signals and any Iran-related escalation
- ◆LNG procurement cost after the QatarEnergy cargo
RISK
- ▼Sustained $100+ Brent widens the trade gap and import bill
- ▼Energy-importer credit lines face receivables stress at these prices
- ▼A supply shock could retest the $108 series high
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