Headlines
Dollar financing dominates the day; the oil bill is the common thread.
Today's pool is a dollar-financing story, and the oil bill is the common thread running through it. The government is reaching abroad to meet an energy import bill it is funding with borrowed dollars rather than the reserve stack: a loan to keep fuel and LNG flowing, a sought budget-support credit, and an estimate of a far larger import burden from the Mideast crisis. The read for the desk is that the external pressure has shifted from the spot rate to the refinancing calendar, so the signal to track now is loan-disbursement timing rather than the daily fix.
Food's Share of Spending Rises as Income Falls
An IMF chart, built on USDA data, plots food spending as a share of GDP against food's share of total consumer spending. Poorer economies sit further up and further right on both scales.
- ▸Advanced economies hold the bottom-left corner. Food takes roughly 5 to 22 percent of consumer spending in that group, on food outlays worth under about 13 percent of GDP.
- ▸Emerging markets spread across the whole middle of the chart. Their markers run from about 11 percent of consumer spending to above 40 percent, and the group overlaps the advanced cluster at one end and the low-income band at the other.
- ▸Low-income developing countries occupy the top-right. Every marker in that group sits above roughly 29 percent of consumer spending, and the highest of them approach 55 percent.
A household that already spends half its money on food has no cheaper category to move into, so a price rise comes out of everything else it buys. The IMF places Bangladesh in the low-income group at the upper right of this chart. Food and beverages carry the largest single weight in the Bangladesh CPI basket, which is the same fact seen from the other side.
Food inflation belongs in the credit process, not only in the macro commentary. A price move reaches disposable income before it reaches any borrower's file, and the thinnest-buffer books — retail, microfinance-linked exposure, small-ticket SME — feel it first. A risk team reading food prices only off the monthly CPI print is working from the slowest signal available.
Policy & Rates (Bangladesh Bank)
Corridor on hold; liquidity ample, reserves building on the August print.
FX Reserves
Gross reserves rose to $37.35bn by the Aug 2026 print from $33.19bn in Dec 2025; net reserves (BPM6) reached $32.44bn from $28.59bn.
Reserves have climbed across the Dec 2025–Aug 2026 window, near the $37.58bn series high.
Treasury: a firmer reserve base eases FX funding pressure, but the figure is an Aug print — watch the next monthly refresh before sizing cover.
WATCH
- ◆Next MPS for any corridor move off 9.50%
- ◆Call money drifting toward the 11.00% SLF ceiling as a tightening tell
- ◆A reserves refresh past the Aug 2026 $37.35bn print
RISK
- ▼Reserves are an Aug 2026 print; a weaker refresh would reset the FX-buffer read
- ▼Loose liquidity sustaining deposit-rate competition among banks
- ▼A liquidity drain pushing call money up off the floor
Banking
Stale but severe; NPLs near a third of loans on the Q2 2026 read.
Overnight Money Market
DOMMR eased to 7.81% by the 8 Oct 2026 print from 10.09% in mid-April; BOFR (Bangladesh Overnight Financing Rate) tracked down to 7.83% from 10.42%.
Both rates sit at their six-month series lows, down from the April 2026 peaks near 10.42–10.65%.
Treasury: interbank funding is cheap and stable, so weak banks retain liquidity access — watch any uptick as the first sign of funding stress.
WATCH
- ◆Q3 2026 NPL disclosure, the next refresh of the 32.78% print
- ◆A CAR update past the year-old Q3 2025 1.56% read
- ◆DOMMR (Dhaka Overnight Money Market Rate) holding near 7.81% as a funding-stress gauge
RISK
- ▼NPL stock concentrated in state-owned commercial banks (SCBs) widening provisioning gaps
- ▼Capital data a year stale masking any further CAR erosion
- ▼Thin capital limiting credit supply to the private sector
Two numbers frame the banking system, and both are old. The NPL ratio was 32.78% on the Q2 2026 print — effectively a third of the loan book non-performing — while the only capital reading we hold, CAR at 1.56%, dates to Q3 2025 and is now over a year stale. The stress is not evenly spread: the bulk of the bad-loan stock sits in a handful of SCBs, which concentrates the system's tail risk in the balance sheets least able to absorb it. For a Tier-1 private bank, the read-through is on interbank and counterparty exposure rather than own-book quality — DOMMR at 7.81% on 8 Oct shows funding is still cheap, so the weak banks are not yet being priced out of liquidity. The desk position: hold counterparty lines to the stressed SCBs tight, and treat the next NPL and CAR disclosures as the trigger to re-rate, since the current figures predate two quarters of credit conditions.
FX & External
Taka holding at 123.10; reserves firm on August's print as the import bill rises.
External Flow Balance
Imports hit $6.78bn in the Jul 2026 print vs $4.20bn June exports — a ~$2.6bn trade gap; imports up from $6.27bn a year earlier.
Imports near the Jul 2026 print, below the $7.51bn series peak; exports up ~25% from June 2025's $3.35bn.
Treasury: the trade gap keeps structural dollar demand high; export momentum helps, but energy imports set the FX funding call — watch the next monthly prints.
WATCH
- ◆A reserves refresh past the Aug 2026 $37.35bn print for true cover
- ◆Disbursement timing of the $3.1bn fuel/LNG loan and $1.0bn budget credit
- ◆USD/BDT drift off 123.10 if dollar demand outruns inflows
RISK
- ▼Oil-driven import bill (Titumir's $4.12bn estimate) draining the FX buffer
- ▼The export figure is a June print — a weaker refresh would narrow cover
- ▼Rising reliance on external loans to fund the current account
The headline FX picture looks steady — USD/BDT at 123.10 on 10 Oct, reserves at $37.35bn on the Aug 2026 print and climbing from $33.19bn last December — but the composition of that stability is shifting. The day's news stack is a dollar-financing story: a $3.1bn loan to keep fuel and LNG flowing, a sought $1.0bn in budget-support credit, and Titumir's estimate of a $4.12bn extra import burden from the Mideast crisis. With Brent at $103.85, the energy import bill is the swing factor, and the authorities are meeting it by borrowing abroad rather than drawing the reserve stack down. For the desk, that keeps headline cover near 5.5 months on the July print intact for now, but shifts the risk from spot FX to the refinancing calendar — watch disbursement timing and the next reserves refresh, because a stall in either turns a managed import bill into a spot-market one.
DSE Markets
A quiet, slightly green session; turnover thin at BDT 533cr on 8 Oct.
DSEX Index
DSEX at 5,475.58 on the 8 Oct 2026 print, up about 5% from 5,202 a year earlier, inside a 4,703–5,926 twelve-month band.
Index sits mid-range — above the 4,703 floor, below the 5,926 peak of the past twelve months.
Equity desk: range-bound tape, no trend; treat DSE as a liquidity gauge, not a directional position this quarter.
WATCH
- ◆Turnover sustaining above BDT 500cr as a participation signal
- ◆DSEX testing the 5,926 series high set over the past year
RISK
- ▼Thin turnover amplifying moves on low float
- ▼Range-bound tape offering little hedge or carry
T-Bonds & T-Bills
Short-end yields easing; the 364d cut-off dropped to 8.59% on 5 Oct.
BD Govt Yield Ladder
Benchmark yields fell Aug–Oct 2026: the 10-year to 8.54% from 9.23%, the 364-day T-bill to 8.59% from 8.89% over the three monthly prints.
Across the Aug–Oct 2026 window every tenor to 10 years moved lower; only the 15–20y long end firmed.
Rates desk: the front and belly are rallying while the 15–20y lags — curve steepening at the long end; favour the belly for carry.
WATCH
- ◆Next weekly auction for the T-bill easing to extend
- ◆A refreshed 5y/10y print past the Sep 8.54–8.65% reads
- ◆The 364d–10y spread for term-premium signals
RISK
- ▼Front-end rates falling faster than the long end, flattening carry
- ▼Stale long-bond marks understating duration risk
- ▼Govt buyback activity (Tk 1,716cr) shifting supply dynamics
Macro & Inflation
12-month CPI eased to 8.66% on the August print; credit growth still thin.
CPI Trend
12-month CPI eased to 8.66% by the Jul 2026 print from 9.97% in Sep 2024; food p2p fell to 8.6%, non-food held near 9.61%.
The 12-month average is at its lowest since May 2026 (8.6% then), down from a 10.34% series peak.
Treasury: disinflation is real but slow and the prints lag; a positive real policy rate supports BB holding at 9.50% near-term.
WATCH
- ◆September CPI for the easing in the 8.66% 12-month average to extend
- ◆Private credit growth off the 4.98% Aug read as a demand signal
- ◆REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) refresh past the 102.78 Mar print
RISK
- ▼Non-food CPI stuck near 9.32% keeping core inflation sticky
- ▼M2 at 11.76% (Jul) outpacing private credit — liquidity not intermediated
- ▼REER at 102.78 (Mar) implying taka overvaluation if it has held
Remittance
September flash remittance near $2.97bn, about 10% above a year earlier.
Remittance Inflow
Monthly remittance was $2.97bn in the Aug 2026 print, up from $2.69bn a year earlier; the twelve-month range is $2.56–3.76bn.
Inflows sit mid-range — above the $2.56bn trough, well below the $3.76bn series peak of the past year.
FX desk: remittance is the steady dollar inflow offsetting the energy import bill; watch the Sep flash hold above $2.9bn.
WATCH
- ◆Confirmation of the Sep 2026 flash $2.97bn in the final print
- ◆Remittance holding the $2.9bn-plus pace into the festival season
- ◆The spread between formal channels and the kerb rate
RISK
- ▼The provisional September figure revised lower in the final print
- ▼Remittance softening as the offset to a rising import bill
- ▼Channel shift to informal hundi if the spread widens
Fiscal
Revenue steady at BDT 4.15tn; the bank-borrow figure is a June print.
NBR Tax Revenue
Monthly NBR tax revenue was BDT 28,027cr in the Oct 2025 print, up from BDT 26,555cr a year earlier; the series has ranged BDT 21,478–52,720cr.
As of the Oct 2025 print, monthly revenue sits well below the BDT 52,720cr series peak, near its lower range.
Fiscal read: the monthly revenue series lags a year; collection momentum, not the YTD total, is the gap to watch for bank-borrowing pressure.
WATCH
- ◆A refresh of the Jun 2026 BDT 0.94tn bank-borrow figure
- ◆Budget-support credit ($1.0bn sought) altering the domestic borrowing mix
- ◆NBR run-rate against the Oct 2026 BDT 4.15tn YTD
RISK
- ▼A revenue undershoot forcing heavier bank borrowing into H2
- ▼External budget support slipping, shifting funding onshore
- ▼Stale borrow data masking a build in government claims on banks
Iran War & Oil
Brent holding above $100; the oil bill is driving today's dollar financing.
Brent Crude
Brent at $103.85 by the 9 Oct 2026 print, up from $76.01 in mid-July — about a third higher, near the $108.35 series high.
The run began at $76.01 on 12 Jul 2026 and has not retraced; the peak so far is $108.35.
Treasury: the ~$28 Brent rise since July is the biggest add to the import bill — size FX funding to it, not spot alone.
WATCH
- ◆Brent sustaining above $100 versus the mid-July $76 base
- ◆Pass-through to the energy import bill and the $3.1bn fuel loan drawdown
- ◆Any Mideast de-escalation easing the crude premium
RISK
- ▼Oil-driven import burden (Titumir's $4.12bn) draining FX reserves
- ▼Sustained crude lifting subsidy and fiscal pressure
- ▼Energy-importer credit lines facing receivables stretch on higher input costs
Crude is the engine behind today's brief. Brent at $103.85 and WTI at $91.07 on 10 Oct cap a roughly one-third climb from about $76 in mid-July, a move driven by the Mideast crisis. For an energy importer like Bangladesh, that feeds directly into the dollar bill: the day's news carries a $3.1bn loan to keep fuel and LNG flowing, a sought $1.0bn in budget-support credit, and Titumir's estimate of a $4.12bn extra import burden. The chain is mechanical — higher crude lifts the import invoice, which lifts dollar demand, which the authorities are meeting through external borrowing rather than reserve draws, keeping USD/BDT pinned near 123.10 and cover near 5.5 months on the July print. The exposure for the desk is second-order: energy-heavy corporate borrowers face margin and working-capital pressure, and the FX funding calendar tightens if crude stays bid. The desk should hold energy-importer receivables on a tighter watch and track the loan-disbursement timeline as the real buffer.
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